Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
HOUSEKEEPING: Wednesday’s Mid Day update will also be the weekend newsletter. Markets are closed Thursday and only open a half of day on Friday. If we do anything Friday it would be a walking away/ locking gains type of trade. We’ll be monitoring things in the morning a bit and if we need to do anything you’ll hear about it. Might be best to monitor your email if anything that morning.
So Far So Good – TESTING TESTING TESTING
In a morbid sort of way today’s action is exactly what you want to see. BIDU’s one minute chart shows exactly what we want to see develop from here. And as I post I must say that is exactly what we are seeing currently.
There are three things we want to be on the lookout for from here in the short term. all three can be found in the BIDU chart above.
1. Retest of lows and bounce away from (think micro double bottom). (12:05 EST. YEP we’re seeing that now too in some indexes. See one min charts below)
2. Retest of lows with a shake and bake undercut to shake the tree of more weak holders. Which is what we are getting here. ( 12:05 EST. Yep, saw that a few minutes ago in some indexes and AMZN. See one min charts below)
To see us retest the lows is actually healthy. Because we need to see how strong these lows actually are. Call it a back to the scene of the crime if we are going to make a run to trend channel resistance.
3. Then An upside break of the mini pink channel after a tightening up along it. Which is the blue circle in the BIDU chart above.
Call it Testing Testing Testing for A low, notice I said A low not the low? We won’t know for a bit if these are going to be any sort of lasting lows till after we attempt a rally.
The game plan for the day is to again do nothing but sweat it out in here AFTER we’ve already sold off hard the last few days. If anything the name that most has my attention is that of NUS on the longside watch list. Really good corrective structure in this pullback off highs vs impulsive pullback/down structure in others.
Overall, so far so good. Lets get thru the close shall we.
SHORT SIDE WATCH LIST
NONE
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
NUS
CVLT
NUAN
RP
FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US LIST
GLD
.
OIH
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CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
NOT YOUR EMOTIONS!
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
11-21 As I look thru our holdings? I really don’t have a problem with any of them except BIDU and AMZN going into today I really had no problem with either of them that is until we got the blink your eye gap down. But still knowing the nature of how these two stocks trade on both sides of the market? I’d rather wait for strength to decide what to consider with them.
Aside from them everything for the most part is manageable and intact.
And those are the key words for the day- Manageable and intact.
Below each of our holdings we’ve laid out how much we are down in them on they’re own and then what impact they have to the whole overall portfolio. As you’ll see its why we say Manageable. You will also see why its much easier to control ones state of mind. I can not stress how important trade size risk management is. Just see for yourself below in red.
AMZN (We are long 75 shares of this at 204.56 as of 11-18-11)
11-21 in this issue we are down 8.2% (with half of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 7/10th of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
DECK (We are long 100 shares of this at 102.67 as of 11-17-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 3.7% (with half of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 2/10th of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
11-17 We did some nibbling on weakness in the face of fear at trend channel support just like we always do. Now? We sweat it out . So what IF (not saying its going to not saying it isn’t as I have no clue and neither does anyone else) this issue went down to the 200 day average as the markets tag the 50 day support level? Well we’d be down about 11 points or around the 10% mark. IF that were to happen should we stop out knowing its a support zone just because we’d be down 10%? or 1/2% of one percent impact to the overall portfolio? Nope.
RAX (We are long 250 shares of this at 42.54 as of 11-15-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 6.7% (with half of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 4/10th of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
11-20 Recently we’ve touched upon using the 50 day as a guide. A point we want to make with this issue is that it could come down to the 50 day average and you know what? Its uptrend would still be intact.
BIDU (We are long 100 shares of this at 136.25 as of 11-11-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 12.2% (with half of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 9/10th of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
VHC (We are long 300 shares of this at 21.64 as of 11-11-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 10.6% (with almost all of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 4/10ths of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
11-21 Caught in the gap down downdraft. Its still above the 50 day and that’s a good thing.
WFM (We are long 150 shares of this at 66.48 as of 11-10-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 3.8% (with almost all of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 2/10ths of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
BWLD (We are long 125 shares of this at 64.13 as of 11-4-11)
(We are long 75 shares of this at 62.33 as of 11-10-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 2% (with almost all of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 1/10ths of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
11-21 Manageable and still intact.
AAPL (We are long 25 shares of this at 398.56 as of 11-1-11)
(We are long 25 shares of this at 391.78 as of 11-10-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 6% (with almost all of that being today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 8/10ths of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
11-21 Our notes from 11-10 still apply to this name.
11-13 Recently we saw a few blurbs about how this issue is totally damaged because its below the 50 day. We get that on the surface HOWEVER look at the overall trend of this stock. It doesn’t trade off the 50 day, it trades off of a big green trend channel.
11-10 So lets play "What If" . What if this issue goes to the green trendline? Well first off its a support level. So would we want to stop out there? Knowing its a support level? And if it were to blow thru there and head to the 200 day average at 262 would we want to stop out there? Knowing its even more major support?
What impact would that have to the total value of our portfolio IF (not saying its going to not saying its not as I don’t know neither does anyone else) it went to the 200 day?. Let’s see we own 50 shares at 395.17 and this issue makes up 11% of our total portfolio. So IF it were to go to 362.00? we’d be down on the position 8.3% on its own. But what about the total impact to our overall portfolio? 9/10ths of one stinking percent!
On top of that? IF we would go there and stop out (which we wouldn’t do because its only a moment in time subject to the next moment in time) it would be a 1658.00 dollar loss. know what? We are up 3300.00+ for the month. So now how much damage would that be to us.
By using trade size risk management it really allows us to never really get flustered or in trouble. This allows us to always stay centered and objective because it really doesn’t mess with our most important asset which is our state of mind. Folks use this conversation as an example for yourself to think things forward and thru. It really helps calm the mind.
MAKO (We are long 100 shares of this at 37.37 as of 11-1-11)
11-21 In this issue we are down 20.7% (with almost 7% of that being in today’s gap today) on its own. But the total impact to the overall portfolio is 5/10ths of 1% all because of trade size risk management.
11-17 We’re really starting to hate this stock. We were ok with the retest of lows yesterday as that’s how double bottoms are made. But it’s a bit iffy here. As my friend said to me once; Want to see a stock take off to the upside? Just sell it and watch it take off without you. We’re tempted to pay the market gods with this one. Seriously though? It’s 100 shares and we’re just going to sit it out for a bit more of in-flight turbulence.
SHORT SIDE
NONE
