Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Happy Thanksgiving from David of All About Trends!
HOUSEKEEPING: Today’s Mid Day update will also be the weekend newsletter. Markets are closed Thursday and only open a half of day on Friday. If we do anything Friday it would be a walking away/ locking gains type of trade. We’ll be monitoring things in the morning a bit and if we need to do anything you’ll hear about it. Might be best to monitor your email if anything that morning.
And here we are going into a holiday weekend with more EU garbage taking center stage. All of which creates more fear which in turn amplifies the downswing as folks in the U.S. hit the sell button in the early going here and say I’m outta here for the rest of the week.
This morning one of our astute forward thinking, objective, unemotional subscribers said this:
Looks like the market is giving everybody some interesting conversation to chew on this Thanksgiving. Everyone will sit around Thursday and talk about how the market is crashing, not realizing the very oversold conditions we’re in.
Chewing is an understatement, but we whole heartedly agree with him. Believe it or not even given the volatility we’ve seen out there since Sept. 1st the S&P 500 has lost 3% yet those who trade in tandem with us are ahead 6.5% over the same time period. This is even with taking a few losses and being a bit underwater with a few issues. All compliments of trading what we see, managing our state of mind (even keel) and of course the biggy of them all TRADE SIZE RISK MANAGEMENT. Everything we talk about here on a daily basis.
Being short can be just as dangerous especially AFTER we fell like we have.
Upon looking at the wave action I’ll tell you one thing. I sure would NOT be selling anything short right here. If I wouldn’t be selling anything short here should I be selling at all? Well yes if I’m one of those emotionally impulsive types who loves to get emotionally whipsawed I would be, BUT that is not who we are at All About Trends.
Yesterday I touched upon testing testing testing and mentioned in a morbid sort of way we actually wanted to see some retests of some lows. Well that can get thrown out the door as shown by today’s action (mostly in the indexes). HOWEVER I’m still of that opinion (based upon what I see technically) and even more so today because we have some serious structure occuring. Namely this C wave is comprised of 5 waves down and now clear as a bell.
Why is that good? Because after that comes 3 waves up at least. That is also the reason you will not catch me becoming emotionally attached to the outcome of we are going to heck in a hand basket AFTER we just have. That is also the reason why I say I would NOT be short selling stocks here.
Keep in mind there are A LOT of fives showing up in the charts in this newsletter. Short Sellers consider yourself warned. A lot of the charts below show five clear waves down with a few in the process of potentially trunicating (stalling) at a retest of the lows. If those issues trunicate and launch higher off of that? Its called double bottoms and a "Back To The Scene Of The Crime" retest and away we go.
Moving on to the daily charts in addition to five waves down of C we’ve got the 61.8% Fibonacci level coming into play here. That’s another negative for short sellers here and a positive for those long and looking to get long in the face of fear.
So what are we going to do about it? Why we are going to look at what exactly are our holdings doing that’s what. Are they holding they’re own? (YES) Are they carving any sort of pattern that we can see that makes us want to hang in there (YES) or just join the fearsome and hit the sell button. I’m going to do what I always have and that is look at what my stocks are
There is a good possibility that you MAY see a newsletter out of us this weekend laying out the current wave structure and a game plan from here that you can sink your teeth into. Worst case is you see it Monday morning.
As far as who the Thanksgiving Turkey’s are? Need we actually have to tell you? I’m sure we ALL already know right? – Washington DC and The EU in our book.
We at All About Trends would like to take this moment to thank you ALL for us being able to meet and get to know a lot of you over this last year. We’ve really got a lot of great minds in here. To those we haven’t heard from? Don’t be a stranger, we’re all for helping YOU "Be All That You Can Be" any way we can. We actually enjoy that and are thankful for the opportunity.
It’s been a great year so far! How can we say that? Simple its times like we’ve seen this year that you find out what you are made of. Trust me folks, if you can get thru this market like we have been you will look back and be able to make it thru anything the market throws at you! If that doesn’t give you personal confidence in your abilities nothing will. ALL great traders share that trait.
And within ALL of you that trait IS present.
Have a great holiday!
SHORT SIDE WATCH LIST
NONE
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
NUS
CVLT
NUAN
RP
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US LIST
GLD
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OIH
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CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
NOT YOUR EMOTIONS!
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
AMZN (We are long 75 shares of this at 204.56 as of 11-18-11)
DECK (We are long 100 shares of this at 102.67 as of 11-17-11)
11-17 We did some nibbling on weakness in the face of fear at trend channel support just like we always do. Now? We sweat it out . So what IF (not saying its going to not saying it isn’t as I have no clue and neither does anyone else) this issue went down to the 200 day average as the markets tag the 50 day support level? Well we’d be down about 11 points or around the 10% mark. IF that were to happen should we stop out knowing its a support zone just because we’d be down 10%? or 1/2% of one percent impact to the overall portfolio? Nope.
RAX (We are long 250 shares of this at 42.54 as of 11-15-11)
11-20 Recently we’ve touched upon using the 50 day as a guide. A point we want to make with this issue is that it could come down to the 50 day average and you know what? Its uptrend would still be intact.
BIDU (We are long 100 shares of this at 136.25 as of 11-11-11)
VHC (We are long 300 shares of this at 21.64 as of 11-11-11)
WFM (We are long 150 shares of this at 66.48 as of 11-10-11)
BWLD (We are long 125 shares of this at 64.13 as of 11-4-11)
(We are long 75 shares of this at 62.33 as of 11-10-11)
11-21 Manageable and still intact.
AAPL (We are long 25 shares of this at 398.56 as of 11-1-11)
(We are long 25 shares of this at 391.78 as of 11-10-11)
11-21 Our notes from 11-10 still apply to this name.
11-13 Recently we saw a few blurbs about how this issue is totally damaged because its below the 50 day. We get that on the surface HOWEVER look at the overall trend of this stock. It doesn’t trade off the 50 day, it trades off of a big green trend channel.
11-10 So lets play "What If" . What if this issue goes to the green trendline? Well first off its a support level. So would we want to stop out there? Knowing its a support level? And if it were to blow thru there and head to the 200 day average at 262 would we want to stop out there? Knowing its even more major support?
What impact would that have to the total value of our portfolio IF (not saying its going to not saying its not as I don’t know neither does anyone else) it went to the 200 day?. Let’s see we own 50 shares at 395.17 and this issue makes up 11% of our total portfolio. So IF it were to go to 362.00? we’d be down on the position 8.3% on its own. But what about the total impact to our overall portfolio? 9/10ths of one stinking percent!
On top of that? IF we would go there and stop out (which we wouldn’t do because its only a moment in time subject to the next moment in time) it would be a 1658.00 dollar loss. know what? We are up 3300.00+ for the month. So now how much damage would that be to us.
By using trade size risk management it really allows us to never really get flustered or in trouble. This allows us to always stay centered and objective because it really doesn’t mess with our most important asset which is our state of mind. Folks use this conversation as an example for yourself to think things forward and thru. It really helps calm the mind.
MAKO (We are long 100 shares of this at 37.37 as of 11-1-11)
SHORT SIDE
NONE
