Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
While the ADP figures is rarely anywhere near the actual government figure that is reported 2 days later, it does help to shape expectations to a degree. Today’s 170,000 job growth for January is exactly in line with expectations so it should not affect Friday’s expectation of 125,000 very much. Recall, December’s unemployment data included about 40,000 workers in the “courier” business (i.e. UPS, Fedex) which many expect to reverse in this month’s numbers – hence the major variance between the 2 numbers. (of course ADP is only private payrolls while the government report includes…. well, government work).
This should do nothing to stop the almost now traditional gap up on the first day of the month. Next news item is ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM…
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