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Friday, November 15, 2024

In Terms of the Final Outcome, the Political Polarization Amounts to a Hill of Beans

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

US debt going is parabolic, as is record high political polarization.  The polarization shown on the chart really amounts to squat in terms of the bottom line.   Presidente Zero throws his latest campaign piece of meat (a “budget”) out for the Republican to go into a dizzle fit over.  Great theater for mainstream media talking heads, but if you want to know what this will mean in due course,  look at Greece, and multiple the effect 30 fold.

The bottom line in terms of Presidente Zero’s budget is this: $1.33 trn budget deficit in the 2013 fiscal year – more than the $1.296 trillion 2011 budget deficit.   That takes the debt up to $18 trillion, in late 2013, and I think sooner.   That’s about 118% debt to GDP assuming interest cost don’t spike or the economy sinks (this budget assumes increasing to 3% in 2012, 3.6% in 2013).   I see revenues lagging even this still too optimistic  projection.  The Prez Zero budget assumes higher taxes,  and the end of the Bush taxes.  We will see how that plays out during the next economic crisis.

Meanwhile as a clue to how this plays out with the faux fiscal conservatives, the WSJ reports, “House Republican leaders said Monday they would introduce a bill extending the payroll-tax break for the rest of the year without finding spending cuts to offset the program’s cost. The proposal marks a major shift for Republicans, who previously had insisted that the costs of extending a trio of provisions expiring at the end of the month be offset with spending cuts.”. This latest “temporary extensions” (see chart 2) will add $167 billion to the budget. This means the next $16.4 trillion debt limit will be breached, drum roll please, just before the November election. Que delicioso!

Republican turnout in primaries is way down. Zero’s State of the Union viewership was also way off, as voters tune out. I have no intention of supporting this two party system.  In a recent Rasmussen poll, 43% believe that politicians picked randomly out of the phone book would do a better job than the current Congress. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree with that assessment, while another 19% are not sure.”

For those of you who still give a shit, there is an alternative. American Elect will draft a Presidential candidate, and is now on the ballot in seventeen states so far. They have 450,000 Facebook “friends”, and over 2.4 million signatures. AE is currently taking delegates, which involves going through a security question process. Of course as a grass roots organization they take donations, and volunteers.  I am still supporting Buddy Roemer who will likely seek this nomination, but there are others. Anybody who wants to get involved in Roemer’s AE bid, please contact me. There is also a good size petition to sign here, asking MSM to let Buddy in on a GOP debate.

For additional analysis on many topics, including trading ideas, subscribe to Russ Winter’s Actionable – risk free for 30 days.  Click here for more information.  

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