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We are still trying to get more bullish.
Over the weekend we set a new, higher set of levels for our Big Chart on the assumption that our breakout levels hold up and our new Must Hold lines become Dow 13,600 (not there yet), S&P 1,360, Nasdaq 3,000, NYSE 8,000 and Russell 800, which means it's now up to the Dow and Nasdaq to continue to show leadership if we're going to be having a rally good enough to get us to add our next 10 bullish plays.
I already added 2 aggressive upside trade ideas on XLF and SPY in the weekend post and last week we already looked at WFR, X, BAC, GLW, BBY, CHK, AAPL, AA, and BA but we also added a new Long Put List (Members Only), which had 19 stocks that we thought were good downside horses to ride if, per chance, we fail to hold 3 of our 5 breakout levels.
It shouldn't be too much to ask – IF this is a real bull market. We've been extremely skeptical up to this point and, Fundamentally, I still have my doubts but Technically, we can't keep fighting the tape so were drawing a line in the sand for Mr. Market to cross and, if it does so, we're happy to play along. If it fails to do so, however, well – we've already made those bets!
Our aggressive take on the Dow is the result of analyzing the 5 components that were replaced since the crash with MO and HON thrown out for BAC and CVX in Feb of 2008, AIG replaced by KFT in Sept 2008 and C and GM replaced by CSCO and TRV in June 2009, causing a massive distortion in the index, meaning 16,000 is the old 15,000, possibly even lower:
The Nasdaq is similarly distorted by AAPL, who are up 500% since 2009 and when a stock that is 11.5% of an index is up 500%, that stock alone causes the index to go up 57.5%, which is why we now call it the AAPLdaq. The AAPLdaq itself is "only" up 100%, which means the ENTIRE rest of the index is lagging with a 42.5% contribution – those who tell you that tech is somehow loved again are fooling themselves – or perhaps just you – in order to spin a market story that simply is not so.
In fact, if we removed AAPL suppliers from the AAPLdaq along with Big Daddy AAPL, we'd have an index that is every bit as pathetic now as it has been since the great crash of 2000. The largest potential for a market catastrophe is AAPL selling off and that's why SQQQ is one of our primary hedges and QQQ July $61 puts ($1) are on our Long Put List – because the AAPLdaq without AAPL is just "daq" – and no one wants to buy daq.
This morning AAPL went against my advice and announced a complete waste of cash dividend of $10.60 per share, which is roughly $10Bn out the window in order to give their shareholders a 1.8% dividend. Just to prove that, perhaps, they are truly out of ideas and SHOULD have their money confiscated, they also announced a $10Bn buyback, which also works out to 1.8% of the company (at the all-time highs) and you know the Jobs era is dead when AAPL can't find something better to invest in than their own stock. As I said to Members in the weekend post:
AAPL investors (real ones) should be FURIOUS if AAPL pays a dividend. Who gives you a better return on capital than AAPL? Why would you want them to give you money – you'll only blow it on some stock that's not AAPL! That $100Bn cash everyone is salivating about was $5Bn 5 years ago, when AAPL stock was $85. Now the stock is $600 and they have $100Bn in cash – THAT'S GOOD! Why would you want to take money away from them? Did you turn $5Bn into $100Bn in the last 5 years? Did you turn a $85 stock into a $600 stock in the last 5 years? So who has a better chance of taking $24Bn (a 4% dividend) and doubling it in the next two years – you or AAPL?
AAPL giving out a dividend and buying back their own stock is a vote of "no confidence" from shareholders and their own board and a black spot on the new management, who couldn't come up with a better plan to grow AAPL than this. Sure they still have lots of money left but $20Bn to goose EPS 1.8% and give $10.60 back to shareholders one time? What else could AAPL have done with $20Bn? I'm glad you asked:
- How about buying TWX ($35Bn market cap), which pays a 2.9% dividend ($1Bn) and drops $3Bn to the bottom line. That's 10% back on your money per year and gets AAPL into the cable Biz and gives them a well-known publishing platform, ownership of music content as well as marquis TV and film content like HBO, Cinemax, TNT, TBS, Warner Brothers, New Line Cinema, etc.
- The CBS Corporation is exactly $20Bn and they drop $1.3Bn to the bottom line with a $200M dividend. AAPL should love them as they bought $1Bn of their own stock last year (5%) and should help boost their EPS in 2012.
- DWA is just a $1.5Bn company, AAPL could have bought that by just paying out $9 in dividend instead of $10.60 and what announcement would you like better – that AAPL is giving you $2.65 a quarter or AAPL is giving you $2.25 per quarter and just bought Dreamworks? While not as successful as Pixar, clearly it's a business Steve Jobs wanted to be in and he drove the value of Pixar up to $7.6Bn when Disney bought it from him in 2006.
Those are just 3 quick ways, off the top of my head, that AAPL could better spend their money than paying out dividends. They are a media company and being able to pick up media assets at depressed prices is a far better use of funds than handing it back to shareholders who don't understand the basic value of having a moat of cash around a company. Just ask Warren Buffett what he thinks about dividends….
We'll see if AAPL declaring itself out of ideas takes the wind out of the market's sails or if it (like everything else that happens) becomes yet another reason for the market to take off to new highs. This week's calendar has a lot of housing data, beginning with today's NAHB Index at 10, followed by Housing Starts and Building Permits tomorrow at 8:30, then the Mortgage Index and Existing Hime Sales on Wednesday, the FHFA Home Price Index on Thursday topped off with New Home Sales on Friday.
If you're determined to be bullish this week, HOV at $2.80 is a good play as we're either going to get good housing data that pops them over $3 or the whole market is going to pull back on negative reports because, without housing coming back – this rally is definitely getting ahead of itself.
