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Thursday, December 19, 2024

What the “Bernanke Hall of Mirrors Put” Looks Like in the Real Economy

The world over, governments and central banks are waging war on supply and demand- on the price mechanism.”  – James Grant, interview here starts at 4:30

On the real economy and the hopium hates details front, fuel demand is down, and aircraft, like autos,  is in a huge inventory stuffing mode. This is what a central bank/Ministry of Truth command and control maladjusted ‘conomy looks like.

US Jet Fuel Demand 4-wk avg= 1.4 mmbbl/d, DOWN 0.4% over yr ago

Gasoline demand 4-wk avg at 8.7 mmbbl/d; DOWN 4.2% from yr ago

The KC survey of Midwest manufacturing activity is showing the impact of the bloated inventory situation.  April expectations are rolling over hard. Production was 35 in February, falling to 26 in April. Backlog of orders in February was 24 to 6 in April. Finished inventories 6 in February, minus 4 in April with a long ways to go. Workweek 7 in February to minus 6 in April.

Price paid raw materials remain sky high at 54. Whirlpool states they are seeing a lot of inflationary pressure. That’s the other aspect of the hall of mirrors Bernanke put,  the players hoard or substitute for money.  China’s copper-hoarding tendencies might be funny if they didn’t threaten to “destroy the world as we know it,” FT‘s Izabella Kaminska writes. Visitors are said to be “astounded” by how much copper is stored in warehouses;  Standard Chartered estimates “total copper inventory in China, which includes inventory outside of the bonded areas, has reached about 1M tonnes (mt).”

Table- Click to enlarge

Table- Click to enlarge

For additional analysis on this topic and related trades subscribe to Russ Winter’s Actionable – risk free for 30 days.The subscription fee is $69 per quarter and helps support Russ.s work on your behalf. Click here for more information.

Copyright © 2012 The Wall Street Examiner. All Rights Reserved. The above may be reposted with attribution and a prominent link to The Wall Street Examiner.

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