Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan was making the rounds yesterday, with yet another defense of his firm’s recession call – the first claim which came early last fall. I do think (from memory) he has pushed out the time frame a bit from when the initial call came, but since early this year has claimed we will see it by mid year. Perhaps the very warm winter hurt the call as well – who knows with these black boxes. Below we have a video with CNBC and there is one nugget in there I did not know. Conventional wisdom is a recession is back to back quarters of negative GDP… but according to the NBER (and Achuthan) that is but one of a group of potential signals.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve’s index of industrial production (IP).
10 minute video – email readers will need to come to site to view
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