Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
The dollar is down a bit today, and the market is up a bit. The past few months this has been THE relationship to watch; almost a perfect inverse relationship – notice in May the dollar rallied all month while the S&P 500 sunk all month. Then notice the reversal for most of June, until the past few days when the dollar stalled at support while the S&P 500 stalled at resistance. Then the large reversals in both yesterday.
Unfortunately this “correlation to 1” is not positive for stock picking, and displays that everything is just a ‘macro trade’ at this time.
The action remains random at the individual stock level but for bulls, you can say we are holding the 38.2% retrace of the June rally today. Not sure if Friday summer holiday trading means a thing, but trying to see both sides.
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