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Wednesday, November 27, 2024

The Case of Incredible Shrinking Q2 Profit Expectations

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Quite an astounding chart via WSJ Marketblog on Q2 earning expectations of the S&P 500 from Jul 1, 2011 to today.  The chart shows the expectation in 3 month increments and what was once a +14% year over year profit growth expectation shrunk to +8% then +4% then +1.7% and now -2.1%.  Which of course will be trumpeted anytime a company “beats expectations”.  

Keep in mind this negative figure includes the massively outsized effect of Apple; last quarter Apple and AIG were essentially the entire S&P 500’s growth and this quarter it is expected to be Apple and Bank of America (due to a one off in it’s mortgage business).  Long story short Apple is the entire growth in the S&P 500 right now and the other 499 companies are combining for little to nothing.  Further we have something like 14%ish expected growth in Q4 of 2012… should be slashed significantly by the time we get “there”.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog

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