Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Third straight month of contraction on ISM Manufacturing at 49.6. Gold jumped and the dollar fell on the news which is “the QE trade” in full effect. Construction spending also came in below expectations.
As for ISM new orders were weaker, employment fell (but still expanding), while prices shot up big time for some reason. Full report here.
“The PMI™ registered 49.6 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from July’s reading of 49.8 percent, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month. This is also the lowest reading for the PMI™ since July 2009. The New Orders Index registered 47.1 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from July, indicating contraction in new orders for the third consecutive month. The Production Index registered 47.2 percent, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points and indicating contraction in production for the first time since May 2009. The Employment Index remained in growth territory at 51.6 percent, but registered its lowest reading since November 2009 when the Employment Index registered 51 percent. The Prices Index increased 14.5 percentage points from its July reading to 54 percent. Comments from the panel generally reflect a slowdown in orders and demand, with continuing concern over the uncertain state of global economies.”
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Internal indicators and feedback from sales channels are indicating a slowdown in demand for capital equipment.” (Machinery)
- “Business continues to be very solid, but there is now a slowing of incoming orders.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Incoming orders have slowed somewhat, but indications are that there will be a stronger fourth quarter.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
- “Business is slow right now. Companies seem to be holding onto their money.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “We can sense, feel and see headwinds with customer orders, especially Europe related.” (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
- “New orders and backlog remain flat.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- “Auto industry slowing a bit in the second half [of the year].” (Transportation Equipment)
- “U.S. drought severely impacting raw materials prices.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Lackluster demand continues in all regions of the world, and is supporting much lower raw materials prices in the second half of 2012.” (Chemical Products)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE AUGUST 2012 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Index |
Series Index Aug |
Series Index Jul |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI™ | 49.6 | 49.8 | -0.2 | Contracting | Faster | 3 |
| New Orders | 47.1 | 48.0 | -0.9 | Contracting | Faster | 3 |
| Production | 47.2 | 51.3 | -4.1 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Employment | 51.6 | 52.0 | -0.4 | Growing | Slower | 35 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.3 | 48.7 | +0.6 | Faster | Slower | 7 |
| Inventories | 53.0 | 49.0 | +4.0 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 49.0 | 49.5 | -0.5 | Too Low | Faster | 9 |
| Prices | 54.0 | 39.5 | +14.5 | Increasing | From Decreasing | 1 |
| Backlog of Orders | 42.5 | 43.0 | -0.5 | Contracting | Faster | 5 |
| Exports | 47.0 | 46.5 | +0.5 | Contracting | Slower | 3 |
| Imports | 49.0 | 50.5 | -1.5 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 39 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Contracting | Faster | 3 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction.
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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
