Market at Risk of One More Leg Down in November
David A. Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com
The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. Examining Elliott Wave patterns can provide clues on market direction. There is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, but we do our best to mix up a home-cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.
In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.
Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December and hope to see this barrier taken out soon.
Consider joining us at www.MarketTrendForecast.com for occasional free reports and or a 33% discount to join and get regularly daily forecast updates on the markets and precious metals that are outside the box.
