Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
I mentioned this briefly in the opening piece and today’s moderate selloff is reinforcing it. 2012 will go down as the year of Q1 (and Apple). The S&P 500 ended on Apr 2 (first day of Q2) at 1419 – that is also the current print. So outside of dividends on the index the last three quarters have been about chasing our tails.
More broadly speaking this now appears to be a second failure (headfake) through those early November highs as the sharp move down has not been quickly erased or mitigated. The next oversold bounce will be telling (probably coming on the fiscal cliff “resolution”). If it fails to do anything other than fill the downside gap created Friday morning, there is the potential for a broader set of technical issues.
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