Courtesy of Paul Price
Three Retail Bargains – Not Damaged Goods
Off-price retailers often sell last season’s merchandise, ‘scratch and dent’ or otherwise less than perfect wares. Shoppers are still willing to buy at the right price. The stock market is the same way. It’s rare to find great companies at huge discounts. To get the best bargains you have to accept some type of blemish.
As long as you know what the ‘irregularity’ is you can make an informed decision. GameStop (GME), Big Lots (BIG) and Staples (SPLS) all have perceived flaws. They all remain highly profitable and sell cheaply enough to be very interesting.
The ongoing results from each of these have stayed strong even as investor sentiment has deemed them to be basket cases. GameStop was ‘supposed’ to fail years ago as on-line delivery of new video game product was rolled out. Despite all the naysaying FY 2012 (ends Feb. 2, 2013) is expected to hit an all-time high of $3.19 per share.
GME’s EPS were $1.48 in FY 2007 when the stock peaked at $36.20. Traders paid a 24.5x multiple back then and got no yield. Today, debt-free GME shares are trading for about 9x earnings with a 4% dividend.
GameStop trades for under $25. It doesn’t seem a stretch to think it could hit $35 within a year. That would only take a rebound to about 10.3x Zacks’ forward estimate of $3.42.
Closeout retailer Big Lots recorded record profits of $2.99 per share in FY 2011. This year is now expected to come in modestly lower at $2.91. That 2.7% earnings drop off appears to be more than reflected in their current price tag of $28.46. The stock has been marked down nearly 40% from last winter’s high point.
BIG’s valuation is the second lowest ever. Buyers at the 2009 nadir got a chance at tripling their money in about 16 months. The two more recent sojourns into sub-eleven multiples each provided excellent trading opportunities.
$40 -$45 appears well within reach at just 13x to 14x the Zacks estimate for FY 2013.
Office Supply giant Staples was being hailed as an American success story until 2007. Earnings stalled in the Great Recession and are just now re-approaching their old highs (excluding non-recurring charges).
SPLS might be unappealing if the stock wasn’t down almost 60% from the 2007 pinnacle of $27.70. At $11.40, SPLS is trading at about 8.2x this year’s estimate along with a 3.86% yield.
Management is working towards right-sizing the company's retail square-footage while continuing to cultivate online sales with quick local delivery. SPLS was #2 in total internet revenues last year with about $10 billion derived from that channel.
I think forecasts of Staples demise are misguided. If you agree, its single digit P/E, dividend, and huge upside make this a compelling play. Staples garners a B++ financial strength rating from Value Line. It also sports a 95th percentile ranking (100th being best) for earnings predictability.
A 12-month target sell zone of $18- $22 doesn’t seem far-fetched. Staples shares topped out above $22 during portions of each of the eight calendar years from 2004 through 2011. SPLS touched almost $17 in 2012. A return to just 2012’s peak would represent a greater than 50% total return.
GME shares had a flattish year in 2012. BIG and SPLS got creamed. Tax selling season is now over. I expect all three of these names to do exceptionally well in the new year.
We already own SPLS in the Market Shadows Virtual Value Portfolio. I'm going to add 100 shares of BIG now @ $28.46 /share (or better if it opens lower tomorrow). I'm hoping for a pull back (and risking Murphy's wrath) by waiting for a pull back in GME before committing to buy.
According to Murphy’s Law, if I own just one stock in this trio, it will be the other two that end up the biggest winners.
As I discussed in Covered Calls – The Hidden Risk for 2013 and Beyond, I am not hedging these investments by writing calls at this time.
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Screenshot of Paul's Virtual Value Portfolio and the Dividend Chart
Inception date 10/26/12. Stock prices are as of 12/31/12. Percentage gain does not include the $1,116 in dividends as of 12/28/12. (Click on tables to enlarge):
