Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The establishment survey report of +155,000 jobs was about what most expected.
However, beneath the surface, this report looks weak.
The household survey shows a gain of a mere 28,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed the same although the number of people unemployed rose by 164,000.
December BLS Jobs Report at a Glance
- Payrolls +155,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment +28,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work -220,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate +.00 at 7.8% – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment +.00 to 14.4% – Household Survey
- The Civilian Labor Force +192,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force -16,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate +.00 to 63.6 – Household Survey
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- Last month it was reported the US unemployment rate fell -.2 to 7.7%
- This month the unemployment rate was reported flat at 7.8% (so last month was revised up)
- In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 2,199,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,436,000
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,766,000 a decline of 16,000
- Ratio of long-term unemployment to overall unemployment is 39.1%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
December 2012 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) December 2012 Employment Report.
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