Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
The ISM Non Manufacturing beat estimates of 54.2 handily at 56.1. Also an improvement versus last month’s 54.7. I guess the fiscal cliff “worries” didn’t really hit the economy that much in December despite all the media hype. Employment surged, not sure how much of this is seasonal (retail) however. Factory orders however missed.
For now small caps continue their gravity defying move. This is the first day in three the bottom end of the range is at least withing the Bollinger band although the current price is still above. Also a lot of the junkiest stocks are beginning to run, i.e. yesterday was a big day for solar. Tends to get that way when euphoria expands.
Full report here.
“The NMI™ registered 56.1 percent in December, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 54.7 percent registered in November. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 60.3 percent, which is 0.9 percentage point lower than the 61.2 percent reported in November, reflecting growth for the 41st consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 1.2 percentage points to 59.3 percent. The Employment Index increased by 6 percentage points to 56.3 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fifth consecutive month at a significantly faster rate. The Prices Index decreased 0.4 percentage point to 56.6 percent, indicating prices increased at a slightly slower rate in December when compared to November. According to the NMI™, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents’ comments remain mixed and are mostly positive about business conditions and the economy.”
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Although our business activity level is the same as a month ago, it is still higher than normal with plans to continue at that rate for the foreseeable future.” (Educational Services)
- “Business conditions are picking up despite the current economic state and the federal budget issues.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- “Consumer optimism increased; lower gasoline prices lead to higher retail sales.” (Public Administration)
- “The holidays will slow construction some, but overall business remains about 25 percent ahead of last year. Weather has been favorable.” (Wholesale Trade)
- “Due to the extra week between Thanksgiving and Christmas, we are seeing our customers shopping later this year.” (Retail Trade)
- “Business has picked up significantly during this last quarter of the year.” (Transportation & Warehousing)
- “Preparing for substantial business due to heavier than normal crop forecast.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
| ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* DECEMBER 2012 |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
| Index | Series Index Dec |
Series Index Nov |
Percent Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index Dec |
Series Index Nov |
Percent Point Change |
| NMI™/PMI™ | 56.1 | 54.7 | +1.4 | Growing | Faster | 36 | 50.7 | 49.5 | +1.2 |
| Business Activity/Production | 60.3 | 61.2 | -0.9 | Growing | Slower | 41 | 52.6 | 53.7 | -1.1 |
| New Orders | 59.3 | 58.1 | +1.2 | Growing | Faster | 41 | 50.3 | 50.3 | 0.0 |
| Employment | 56.3 | 50.3 | +6.0 | Growing | Faster | 5 | 52.7 | 48.4 | +4.3 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 48.5 | 49.0 | -0.5 | Faster | Faster | 2 | 54.7 | 50.3 | +4.4 |
| Inventories | 50.0 | 47.0 | +3.0 | Unchanged | From Contracting | 1 | 43.0 | 45.0 | -2.0 |
| Prices | 56.6 | 57.0 | -0.4 | Increasing | Slower | 6 | 55.5 | 52.5 | +3.0 |
| Backlog of Orders | 49.5 | 53.5 | -4.0 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 48.5 | 41.0 | +7.5 |
| New Export Orders | 49.5 | 48.0 | +1.5 | Contracting | Slower | 3 | 51.5 | 47.0 | +4.5 |
| Imports | 49.0 | 55.5 | -6.5 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 51.5 | 48.0 | +3.5 |
| Inventory Sentiment | 58.0 | 62.5 | -4.5 | Too High | Slower | 187 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 47.0 | 42.5 | +4.5 |
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