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Friday, November 15, 2024

Why December’s Front-Loaded Gain Will Be January’s Pain: Biderman Explains

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Wondering where the somewhat out-of-character economic improvements of Q4 2012 data came from – given Sandy and the fiscal cliff uncertainty? Wonder no longer. Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, has done the data-mining and explains, quite succinctly in this clarifying clip, just what happened in Q4 2012.

To wit, after-tax income saw a somewhat impressive (but "don't get too excited" he adds) post-election spike as individuals (and small businesses) front-ran expectations of tax-rises in 2013 by pulling forward income and bonuses etc. into 2012. Q4 income rose by over 6% YoY, which, he believes, means Q1 2013 income will be correspondingly lower. Following an epic rant/exposition of the higher taxes US citizens will be paying, Biderman batters GDP (and the government's infinite idiocy) instead focusing on the real recession of lower after-tax take-home-pay and expects Q1 to see the US plunge with the "US economy starting out the new year on its butt!" Then, as a bonus, he destroys the nonsense myth that the US housing recovery is leading us forward.

From around 3:50 Biderman explains the recent improvements and what that means for 2013 going forward…

followed by (at around 5:00) his discussion of why the housing recovery is 'not'…

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