Courtesy of Mish.
Inquiring minds are digging into social security trends including the numbers of beneficiaries, average costs, total costs, number of workers, and the ratio workers to beneficiaries.
First, let’s take a look at the CNS News report Social Security Ran $47.8 Billion Deficit in Fiscal Year 2012.
The Social Security program ran a $47.8 billion deficit in fiscal 2012 as the program brought in $725.429 billion in cash and paid $773.247 for benefits and overhead expenses, according to official data published by Social Security Administration.
The Social Security Administration also released new data revealing that the number of workers collecting disability benefits hit a record 8,827,795 in December–up from 8,805,353 in November.
With that backdrop, let’s look at the actual data to see the underlying trends.
Data Notes
- Social Security data from Social Security Online.
- Employment data from St. Lois Fed Total Nonfarm Employees.
- OASI is the retirement fund (What people normally think of as Social Security)
- DI is the Social Security Disability Fund
Social Security Beneficiaries December 2012
| OASI Trust Fund | ||
|---|---|---|
| Retired Workers & Dependents | Retired Worker | 36,719,288 |
| Spouse | 2,280,332 | |
| Child | 612,087 | |
| Subtotal | 39,611,707 | |
| Survivors | Child | 1,907,097 |
| Aged Widow(er) | 3,937,958 | |
| Young Widow(er) | 153,628 | |
| Disabled Widow(er) | 255,472 | |
| Parent | 1,427 | |
| Subtotal | 6,255,582 | |
| Total OASI | 45,867,289 | |
| DI Trust Fund | ||
| Disabled Worker | 8,827,795 | |
| Spouse | 162,881 | |
| Child | 1,900,220 | |
| Total DI | 10,890,896 | |
| Total OSASI + DI | 56,758,158 | |
Social Security Beneficiaries, Costs, Employment
| Year | Beneficiaries | Average Monthly Benefit | Total Annual Cost | Employment | E/B Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-67 | 22,979 | $73.92 | $20,383,201,682 | 66,900 | 2.9114 |
| Dec-68 | 23,886 | $85.24 | $24,432,839,002 | 69,245 | 2.8989 |
| Dec-69 | 24,709 | $86.47 | $25,638,687,737 | 71,240 | 2.8832 |
| Dec-70 | 25,701 | $101.35 | $31,257,463,769 | 70,790 | 2.7544 |
| Dec-71 | 26,817 | $113.22 | $36,435,282,006 | 72,108 | 2.6888 |
| Dec-72 | 28,066 | $138.70 | $46,712,482,840 | 75,270 | 2.6819 |
| Dec-73 | 29,514 | $143.99 | $50,996,092,215 | 78,035 | 2.6440 |
| Dec-74 | 30,576 | $163.02 | $59,813,483,661 | 77,657 | 2.5398 |
| Dec-75 | 31,862 | $179.29 | $68,549,741,469 | 78,017 | 2.4486 |
| Dec-76 | 32,835 | $194.95 | $76,815,361,682 | 80,448 | 2.4500 |
| Dec-77 | 33,923 | $211.16 | $85,958,416,484 | 84,408 | 2.4882 |
| Dec-78 | 34,453 | $229.86 | $95,032,473,435 | 88,674 | 2.5738 |
| Dec-79 | 35,013 | $258.37 | $108,555,575,502 | 90,669 | 2.5896 |
| Dec-80 | 35,526 | $300.75 | $128,213,644,374 | 90,936 | 2.5597 |
| Dec-81 | 35,930 | $340.84 | $146,956,770,724 | 90,884 | 2.5295 |
| Dec-82 | 35,778 | $372.10 | $159,755,010,234 | 88,756 | 2.4808 |
| Dec-83 | 36,034 | $393.15 | $170,001,091,973 | 92,210 | 2.5590 |
| Dec-84 | 36,439 | $412.21 | $180,244,135,062 | 96,087 | 2.6370 |
| Dec-85 | 37,027 | $429.35 | $190,768,953,436 | 98,587 | 2.6626 |
| Dec-86 | 37,683 | $438.76 | $198,407,802,022 | 100,484 | 2.6665 |
| Dec-87 | 38,171 | $461.35 | $211,323,314,397 | 103,634 | 2.7150 |
| Dec-88 | 38,613 | $484.01 | $224,268,374,172 | 106,871 | 2.7678 |
| Dec-89 | 39,141 | $511.89 | $240,431,129,294 | 108,809 | 2.7799 |
| Dec-90 | 39,825 | $544.52 | $260,224,095,454 | 109,120 | 2.7400 |
| Dec-91 | 40,587 | $568.55 | $276,908,006,552 | 108,262 | 2.6674 |
| Dec-92 | 41,504 | $588.90 | $293,296,976,201 | 109,416 | 2.6363 |
| Dec-93 | 42,243 | $607.48 | $307,943,241,597 | 112,204 | 2.6561 |
| Dec-94 | 42,882 | $628.14 | $323,229,663,108 | 116,055 | 2.7064 |
| Dec-95 | 43,386 | $648.77 | $337,772,228,816 | 118,208 | 2.7246 |
| Dec-96 | 43,736 | $672.81 | $353,113,695,411 | 121,002 | 2.7666 |
| Dec-97 | 43,971 | $692.82 | $365,565,297,977 | 124,357 | 2.8282 |
| Dec-98 | 44,246 | $707.39 | $375,585,941,872 | 127,359 | 2.8785 |
| Dec-99 | 44,595 | $730.53 | $390,940,040,819 | 130,533 | 2.9270 |
| Dec-00 | 45,415 | $767.35 | $418,187,686,581 | 132,481 | 2.9171 |
| Dec-01 | 45,877 | $795.69 | $438,050,881,510 | 130,720 | 2.8493 |
| Dec-02 | 46,444 | $815.05 | $454,253,081,458 | 130,175 | 2.8028 |
| Dec-03 | 47,038 | $840.62 | $474,497,794,254 | 130,259 | 2.7692 |
| Dec-04 | 47,688 | $871.80 | $498,889,778,321 | 132,316 | 2.7746 |
| Dec-05 | 48,434 | $915.71 | $532,222,768,675 | 134,814 | 2.7834 |
| Dec-06 | 49,123 | $955.53 | $563,260,007,133 | 136,882 | 2.7865 |
| Dec-07 | 49,865 | $987.03 | $590,618,750,824 | 137,982 | 2.7671 |
| Dec-08 | 50,898 | $1,054.38 | $643,995,009,294 | 134,379 | 2.6401 |
| Dec-09 | 52,523 | $1,064.41 | $670,869,765,261 | 129,319 | 2.4621 |
| Dec-10 | 54,032 | $1,074.33 | $696,579,633,240 | 130,346 | 2.4124 |
| Dec-11 | 55,404 | $1,122.89 | $746,557,638,566 | 132,186 | 2.3858 |
| Dec-12 | 56,758 | $1,152.79 | $785,163,217,034 | 134,021 | 2.3613 |
Notes for Above Table
Employment and beneficiary numbers are in thousands.
I computed the total annual cost as monthly benefit * 12 * number of beneficiaries. That method will tend to overstate annual costs slightly vs. totaling every month individually. Thus, the total cost may vary slightly from other published figures.
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