Via Calculated Risk:
Some short excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius:
1.Will the 2013 tax hike tip the economy back into recession?
No. To be sure, it will likely deal a heavy blow to household finances, and we therefore expect consumer spending to be weak this year. …
2.Will growth pick up in the second half?
Yes. This forecast is based on the assumption that the drag from fiscal retrenchment—i.e., the ex ante reduction in the government deficit—diminishes in the second half of 2013 but the boost from the ex ante reduction in the private sector financialbalance remains large. In our forecast, this causes a pickup in real GDP growth to a 2½% annualized rate in 2013H2, and further to around 3% in 2014.
3.Will capital spending growth accelerate?
Yes. We expect a pickup from around zero in the second half of 2012 to about 6% in 2013 on a Q4/Q4 basis. This would contribute 0.6 percentage points to real GDP growth and offset most of the likely slowdown in consumer spending growth.
4.Will the housing market continue to recover?
Yes. The fundamentals for housing activity point to further large gains in the next couple of years.
Keep reading: Calculated Risk: Goldman's Hatzius: 10 Questions for 2013.
