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Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Failure to Bite

We did not end up selling an AAPL put as we planned to do last night in the Market Shadows Put Selling Virtual Portfolio because the puts were trading around $4 below the price we wanted to sell at ($27 vs. $31). Apple was strong all day and then tanked after hours so missing our price ironically turned out to be lucky. 

We still like AAPL at these prices but do not like its action. As we argued in The Trouble with Tech & the Dethroning of Darlings, AAPL is no longer trading on fundamentals as much as it is on momentum, and we're back to watching and waiting for a better opportunity. 

If it wasn't such a game of expectations, Wall Street would be honoring Apple (AAPL) today and its stock would be soaring in the wake of another quarter of record sales and earnings. However, falling short of expectations in the investment world is like stepping out of bounds by only an inch, nullifying an incredible catch in football.

While CEO Tim Cook described Apple's results as "extraordinary" on the company's conference call late yesterday, the simple fact remains that by several key measures the company grew less than analysts expected. The disappointment is tangible, triggering a sell-off that's taken the stock to levels not seen in a year. But it is also tempting, given that shares are now down 35% from their all-time high of $705 hit just four months ago.

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