Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
ISM Manufacturing came in quite disappointing at 51.3 vs estimate of 54.0 and last month’s 54.2. (Any # over 50 is still expansion) Of course everyone is looking to see if this is yet another year where a spring swoon in economic data hits so we’ll see if this is an outlier or the beginning of a repeat. New orders swooned in particularly bad fashion at 51.4 versus 57.8. Prices swooned but employment held in nicely.
Full report here.
“The PMI™ registered 51.3 percent, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from February’s reading of 54.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. Both the New Orders and Production Indexes reflected growth in March compared to February, albeit at slower rates, registering 51.4 and 52.2 percent, respectively. The Employment Index registered 54.2, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to February’s reading of 52.6 percent. The Prices Index decreased 7 percentage points to 54.5, and the list of commodities up in price reflected far fewer items than in February. In addition, the Backlog of Orders, Exports and Imports Indexes all grew in March.”
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Beginning to feel the seasonal upswing in business — energy and resin remain a concern.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Medical reimbursements from insurance companies, particularly Medicare, are slowing.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- “While the second half of 2013 looks promising, the first half is a mixed bag.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Things seem slightly better than last year, but still not great.” (Printing & Related Support Activities)
- “Automotive is still very strong.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Post-election in the U.S. — companies within the oil and gas sector are still waiting for signs of some regulatory certainty or stability.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- “Reduced government spending in the defense sector lowers business output.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “Business is continuing to be brisk.” (Furniture & Related Products)
- “Market continues to be strong, and our production is exceeding plans at this time.” (Wood Products)
- “Sales are low, even adjusted for seasonal variation.” (Chemical Products)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE MARCH 2013 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Index |
Series Index Mar |
Series Index Feb |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI™ | 51.3 | 54.2 | -2.9 | Growing | Slower | 4 |
| New Orders | 51.4 | 57.8 | -6.4 | Growing | Slower | 3 |
| Production | 52.2 | 57.6 | -5.4 | Growing | Slower | 7 |
| Employment | 54.2 | 52.6 | +1.6 | Growing | Faster | 42 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.4 | 51.4 | -2.0 | Faster | From Slowing | 1 |
| Inventories | 49.5 | 51.5 | -2.0 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 47.5 | 46.5 | +1.0 | Too Low | Slower | 16 |
| Prices | 54.5 | 61.5 | -7.0 | Increasing | Slower | 8 |
| Backlog of Orders | 51.0 | 55.0 | -4.0 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| Exports | 56.0 | 53.5 | +2.5 | Growing | Faster | 4 |
| Imports | 54.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | Growing | Same | 2 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 46 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Slower | 4 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction.
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