Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
ADP employment missed this morning by some 40Kish, but was mostly shrugged off. Now we have ISM Non Manufacturing missing some as well, 54.4 vs 55.6 and 56.0 last month. This is the weakest reading since November. New orders fell 3.6 and employment 3.9. Again the question of the year is: is this a fourth spring swoon ahead in our future? Market is selling off on this news (repeat of Monday) and we’ll see if yesterday’s gap up gets filled quickly.
Full report here.
“The NMI™ registered 54.4 percent in March, 1.6 percentage points lower than the 56 percent registered in February. This indicates continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.5 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 56.9 percent reported in February, reflecting growth for the 44th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 54.6 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 3.9 percentage points to 53.3 percent, indicating growth in employment for the eighth consecutive month. The Prices Index decreased 5.8 percentage points to 55.9 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in March when compared to February. According to the NMI™, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in March. The majority of respondents’ comments continue to be positive about business conditions; however, there is an underlying concern regarding the uncertainty of the future economy.”
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “The economy and our business appear to be improving.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
- “Volumes are down slightly, but spending per person is up.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
- “Economy and all of our business units appear to be on track for positive gains this year. It may be a struggle, but economic indicators and signs of business growth point to increased spending from our customers.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- “Local business climate seems more upbeat as the market moves higher.” (Public Administration)
- “Winter weather has affected construction, but the spring building season looks encouraging.” (Wholesale Trade)
- “Sales increased 17 percent last year; sales continue to rise this quarter.” (Retail Trade)
- “Anticipate a plentiful season, requiring strategic planning with packaging inventories.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
| ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* MARCH 2013 |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
| Index | Series Index Mar |
Series Index Feb |
Percent Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index Mar |
Series Index Feb |
Percent Point Change |
| NMI™/PMI™ | 54.4 | 56.0 | -1.6 | Growing | Slower | 39 | 51.3 | 54.2 | -2.9 |
| Business Activity/Production | 56.5 | 56.9 | -0.4 | Growing | Slower | 44 | 52.2 | 57.6 | -5.4 |
| New Orders | 54.6 | 58.2 | -3.6 | Growing | Slower | 44 | 51.4 | 57.8 | -6.4 |
| Employment | 53.3 | 57.2 | -3.9 | Growing | Slower | 8 | 54.2 | 52.6 | +1.6 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 53.0 | 51.5 | +1.5 | Slowing | Faster | 3 | 49.4 | 51.4 | -2.0 |
| Inventories | 51.5 | 54.0 | -2.5 | Growing | Slower | 2 | 49.5 | 51.5 | -2.0 |
| Prices | 55.9 | 61.7 | -5.8 | Increasing | Slower | 42 | 54.5 | 61.5 | -7.0 |
| Backlog of Orders | 54.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 | Growing | Same | 2 | 51.0 | 55.0 | -4.0 |
| New Export Orders | 56.5 | 60.5 | -4.0 | Growing | Slower | 3 | 56.0 | 53.5 | +2.5 |
| Imports | 57.5 | 52.5 | +5.0 | Growing | Faster | 3 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 |
| Inventory Sentiment | 59.5 | 62.5 | -3.0 | Too High | Slower | 190 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 47.5 | 46.5 | +1.0 |
* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.
** Number of months moving in current direction.
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
