HERE IT IS: Wall Street's Most Bearish Prediction For Tomorrow's Jobs Report
Courtesy of Sam Ro, Business Insider
According to the consensus estimate, the U.S. added 140,000 nonfarm payrolls in April.
This number is derived from a survey of Wall Street economists conducted by Bloomberg.
The range of estimates goes as low as 100,000 and as high as 200,000.
At the bearish end is Nomura economist Ellen Zentner. From her jobs preview note:
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the National Employment Report on Friday we expect it to reveal that the US economy added a net new 100k jobs in April… Our below consensus forecast for total nonfarm payrolls reflects our judgment that most incoming labor market indicators failed to improve in April following a surprisingly softer labor market in March (when the BLS reported that just 88k net new jobs were created).
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Not all labor market indicators have weakened, but on net incoming data since the March employment report have continued to soften (Figure 2).
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The regional surveys, consumer spending data, consumer confidence readings, and Nomura's proprietary indicators on net point to weakness.
Zentner's forecast is even lower than the bearish "whisper number."
It's worth noting that in December, Zentner had an unusually bullish forecast for the jobs report and she basically nailed it.
Picture: from Bloomberg, Ellen Zentner
