Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The establishment survey showed a gain of 165,000 a reasonably good but not spectacular print. In contrast, the household survey showed a huge gain of 293,000 jobs.
Once again we see a huge surge in involuntary part-time employment of 278,000. Voluntary part-time employment rose by another 163,000.
Voluntary plus involuntary part-time employment rose by a whopping 441,000 jobs. Take away part-time jobs and there is not all that much to brag about. Indeed, full-time employment fell once again, this month by 148,000.
The civilian labor force rose by 210,000 for a change, thus the actual number of unemployed only fell by 83,000 (293,000 – 210,000), enough to lower the unemployment rate 0.1 percentage points to 7.5%.
The Participation Rate was flat at 63.3%, a low dating back to 1979.
Duration of unemployment numbers showed a statistical anomaly this month. Unemployment in the 27 weeks or over category reportedly fell by 258,000 while unemployment for 15-26 weeks rose by 230,000. Color me very skeptical of these numbers.
The stock market was giddy over jobs, with the Dow topping 15,000 for the first time. Then again the stock market has generally been giddy over any news, good bad or indifferent.
April BLS Jobs Report at a Glance
- Payrolls +165,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment +293,000 – Household Survey
- US Unemployment -83,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work +278,000 – Household Survey;
- Voluntary Part-Time Work +163,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.1 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment +0.1 to 13.9% – Household Survey
- The Civilian Labor Force +210,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force -31,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate +0.0 at 63.3 – Household Survey
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
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