Will We Hold It Wednesday – Fed Edition

Oh who am I kidding, we're already shorting!  

I sent out an Alert to our Members at 3:14 am, as the Dow Futures (/YM) hit 15,278 and the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) hit 3,000 and the Russell Futures (/TF) hit 998.20 to short them all and we got one quick ride down for a nice profit (also available to our Twitter followers) and then a chance to re-load at 5 am (also noted in Chat, of course) and now (7:25), I just warned our Members to guard our profits (again) at Dow 15,230 ($240 per contract), Nasdaq 2,990 ($200 per contract) and Russell 995 ($500 per contract).  

Our regular short-term positions were already pretty bearish heading into the close and so far, so wrong on those!  So it's nice to make back a little playing the Futures with the early risers and we also caught oil (/CL) at the $99 line and that one could be the best ride of the day at $10 per penny, per contract. 

We have inventories at 10:30 but, if they want to pretend to want a barrel of oil for $99, we're VERY happy to sell it to them because I can buy a barrel of December oil (actually 1,000 per contract) for $97.26 and net $2.50 on the spread less my rolling cost month to month (usually .20-.40).  That's how fake this July "demand" is.  

The Wall Street Journal is running an article on oil market manipulation this morning but it's deceptive (what isn't in Murdoch-Land?) as it focuses on a trader who "admits" to manipulating the price of Brent Crude LOWER.  That's right, they can't deny the manipulation exists – as I pointed out Monday, you have to be blind not to see it.  

So, instead, the industry PR machine is now rolling and planting stories like this one to confuse the issue so the talking point will be "well, there's manipulation on both sides, so it all evens out."  NO, it does not, they are LYING to you.  They same way we teach our Members how to make money by shorting into these BS moves up, the very few legitimate oil traders who WANT to have oil delivered have many ways not to pay the BS prices but, those delivered barrels on the exchange come out to less than 20M per month – out of  2,700,000,000 consumed globally.  

The consumer at the pump or paying a home heating bill has no power to force the fake trade lower so they pay at the top, every time.  On Monday, for example, I printed the NYMEX strip with open interest and July was 110,656 contracts (1,000 barrels per contract) and Aug was 239,546, Sept was 237,628 and Oct was 121,866 and I said that they would cancel almost all of those 110,656 contract open for July because the orders were FAKE!!!  A pretty bold statement, right?  Well, here we are 48 hours later:

Wow, 57,724,000 barrels worth of "orders" has disappeared.  I guess that "demand" for 110,656,000 barrels was FAKE!  Not only that but notice that 38M of those fake July orders have now been added to fake August orders and and 8M were rolled to Sept and so on.  We roll unwanted option contracts all the time – so we can spot the pattern quite easily.  So the NYMEX traders go from faking demand for 300M barrels in July to drive up the prices you pay for petroleum products to faking demand for 300M barrels in August to drive up the price of petroleum products and the ultimate bag-holder is YOU, when you go to the pump and actually pay $3.50 per gallon ($147 per barrel).  

See what happens when you don't write your Congressman like I told you to.  Actually, some of you did because I've already been threatened to "be careful" about what I write about oil manipulation.  Well, this is me being careful:  ARREST THOSE BASTARDS!!!  You don't need a masters in economics to figure out what's going on here – just a bit of common sense.  The WSJ does have a couple of examples of upside manipulation but treats them like they are ancient history – when they happen every single day.  

Oil is $99 this morning – YOU SUCKER – it was $95 last week, when there were 2.5M less barrels in inventory – YOU SUCKER –  it was $93 in January, when there were 37M less barrels in inventory – YOU SUCKER – last June, gasoline (/RB) was $2.34 and now there is 10% more gasoline in storage, 10% less demand and you are paying $3.03, 29% more – do I really have to say it – SUCKER!!!!

I'm sorry but if I have to pound this concept into your heads I will.  You are suckers if you put up with this BS.  It's a scam, you are being robbed.  And your elected leaders let it happen because you let it happen without complaining, without letting these politicians know that their jobs depend on doing something about the theft of $2,000 per family, per year – and that's being generous, because we're assuming last year's prices had some legitimacy.  

When will you stop the madness?  When will you WRITE YOUR CONGRESSMAN?  When will you forward this article to your friends and get a discussion going on this topic – that affects each and every one of you?  How can I make you care?  

Speaking of manipulating bastards – check out Tobin Smith, now formerly of Fox because he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar for accepting money to promote stocks.    And so much money, too!   Apparently, PSON paid Mr. Smith $50,000 to write a 20-page endorsement of their company.  I get offered stuff like this all the time – only not so much!  This one was so egregious that even FOX had to say he crossed a line but Smith, God bless him, was unapologetic.  When asked whether he had violated Fox’s rules, Smith said, via text message:

“that policy was added late last year … my contract was not subject to that clause …” 

Priceless?  No, actually, it's $50,000 per "pick" that is shoved down the sheeple's throats as they lap up whatever crap these TV pundits spin at them.  I try to make it my mission here to teach people to look behind the curtain and realize what a scam the whole system is but, unfortunately, it's a little depressing when you have to look at ugly truths like this and I'm sorry to hammer the point home but it's very rare when someone well-known gets caught and really, this kind of stuff happens ALL THE TIME!  

And now, on to the biggest pump and dump scheme of all time…  That's right, it's the FOMC Meeting today and they're going to announce whatever and the markets will do whatever and blah, blah, blah – who cares?  Other than measuring the supply of FREE MONEY and applying it to our expectations for corporations to be able to use it to generate profits going forward – what can the Fed really do?  

On the other side of the World, Chinese Rate Swaps are up for the 13th day in a row as liquidity runs bone dry, causing the PBOC to consider using reverse repos to stop the bleeding.  “The cash shortage may get even worse before the quarter-end because banks will have to hoard cash to meet loan-to-deposit ratio requirements,” said Chen Qi, a strategist at UBS Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The central bank probably won’t come out to intervene unless there is a sharp decline in economic growth and large capital outflows.”

China’s one-year swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repo rate, jumped 41 basis points to 4.39 percent as of 3:11 p.m. in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the biggest gain since June 2008 and the highest level since September 2011.  The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, increased 138 basis points, or 1.38 percentage points, to 8.20 percent, a weighted average compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center shows. It touched 8.21 percent earlier, the highest since June 2011.

You won't hear about this in our MSM because it's complicated and it's bearish and that's not the narrative they're paid to give you this year.  Chinese stocks are back to 21,000 on the Hang Seng, the same line they broke down at in July of 2011, falling that time all the way down to 16,170 in late September.  The Shanghai, meanwhile, is flatlining in a very ugly way along it's 200 dma at 275 and that's already LOWER than the mainland index was in 2011, but not as low as last year's crash to 236 before QE3 saved the World.  

Is this news to you?  Should it be?  How do you feel when important events are going on in the World but the people you trust to bring you the news fail to do so?  Surely information is power so, when that information is withheld from you by the Corporate Media in order to manipulate your outlook – what are they doing to you?  Making you powerless.  

"THEY" have the information, they just choose not to tell you the whole story or, often enough, any of the story.  Even the Tobin Smith thing won't rate a mention in the MSM because THAT'S HOW THEY ALL GET PAID.  Tobin Smith isn't being punished for getting paid to promote a stock – he's being punished for getting caught.  Even so, he'll get a slap on the wrist and be back on TV by the end of the year and, amazingly, sheeple will forget and follow him once again. 

What do you get for pretending the danger's not real

Meek and obedient you follow the leader

Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel

What a surprise!

A look of terminal shock in your eyes

Now things are really what they seem

No, this is no bad dream. – Sheep, Pink Floyd 

Bahhhhhhhhh, humbug!