Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

I predict an S&P 500 fall for Wednesday, because Congress is cutting it really close

I predict that the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) will fall tomorrow because Congress is cutting this crisis way too close.  Yesterday, I was wrong again in my prediction, as the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell .71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) fell .96%, and the NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) lost .56%.

At the end of the day yesterday, I was figuring that the progress in the Senate would be met with progress in the House and investors would have a hope rally. I guess not.  Now, I believe that no matter how hopeful investors may be, and no matter how certain stock markets are that Congress will not default the country, I predict a decline because Congress is simply cutting this crisis way too close for comfort.

The technical picture of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) breaks even with my prediction, with the RSI in a negative trend below the ’50′ line, and the MACD still holding positive at a robust .768.   Stock markets and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) at large appear to be moving sideways, as this week’s gains and losses so far have evened out.  It appears that at the very least, investors remain confused about what the heck is going on:

chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

International markets are definitely in a hope rally configuration, with European markets finishing in the green earlier and with the Nikkei Index currently trading on the green side of neutral at the time of this writing.  The Hang Seng is trading deep into the red.

US Futures markets are also in a hope rally at the time of this writing, averaging half percent gains.

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