I hope everyone is having a nice holiday.
The US Markets were closed yesterday and today we close at 1pm and then Christmas Eve we're closing early again and closed XMas day (Weds), of course, but not New Year's Eve so just two more humbug interruptions of our bull Market before 2014 and so far, it looks like we're rolling right into our Santa Rally with the US Futures up another 0.25-0.5% this morning.
Today is "Black Friday", so named because it's traditionally when retailers finally get into profits for the year and whatever they can make over the next 30 days are going to be it for their 2013 profits. Due to an unfortunate turn of the calendar, there are only 3 weekends (after this one) until Christmas – that places more than the usual importance on this weekend's retail sales.
The National Retail Federation has forecast that up to 140M consumers will go shopping over the long weekend, up a bit from 139.4M last year. IBISWorld has projected that total sales through Cyber Monday will rise 2.2% to $40.5Bn. Mobile traffic increased over 31% yesterday as smartphones accounted for more than 23% of all Internet traffic. By 6 pm, online sales were up 10% over last year.
Germany, surprisingly, had a 0.8% slump in Retail Sales for October, following through on a 0.2% drop in September and missing the predictions of leading economorons of 0.5% growth by a mile (or 1.6 kilometers). That's pegging their year/year sales at -0.2% vs the +0.3% consensus in the World's 4th largest economy.
Now, I'm not going to ruin the holiday spirit by pointing out that this is troubling. Let's just do what the rest of the market is doing and completely ignore the bad data! As you can see from Dave Fry's NYMO chart, we're not very overbought, even at these levels, so we'll add a few more 500% plays for additional upside moves and see what happens. We've placed plenty of bearish bets and we'll adjust those to keep them active but it's bullish bets we need for balance now.
Already, Monday's recommended spread of 10 QQQ March $83/88 bull call spread at $2.18 ($2,180), paid for with the sale of 1 AAPL 2015 $450 put for $32.50 ($3,250 credit) for a net credit of $1,070 is at $2,500 on the Qs and $2,500 on the short AAPL puts for a net $1,070 gain (100%) in 4 days and well on track for our full, potential 567% gain. Our DDM Dec $102/110 bull call spread jumped to $5.75, up ANOTHER 30% in 4 days and the new April $105/115 at $5 idea, offset by selling CAT 2016 puts for $4 for net $1 on the $10 spread is already $1.40 per contract – up 40% in 4 days.
See how silly this is? We can make 10% a day or more with these aggressive bullish plays. That's why I love cash! We need so little of it to make fantastic returns with these leveraged spreads that play off the uni-directional madness. Keep in mind, when you have relentless up moves like this, we can take 5% of our money and turn it into 7% in 4 days and next week we turn 7% into 10%, etc – it's insane how much money there is to be made "going with the flow."
Those were just the free trade ideas from the morning post, we had plenty of other great trade ideas for our Members in subsequent chat sessions that are extending our fantastic Fall winning streak. I'm not going to get into the negatives here but surely you realize that, if it's this easy to make 40% weekly returns on your money – that your money is essentially worthless over time because we're not the only ones taking advantage of the Fed's largess and, eventually, inflation will creep into other parts of the economy besides the equity markets.
Keep in mind those were 5 MORE Trade Ideads that Make 500% – our third time this year we've tapped that well and again I will point out that if you took 5% of your portfolio and made that into 25% and then rolled that 25% into trades that made another 500%, that's 125% right there and, should these 5 trade ideas make another 500% and should you be foolish enough to let your bonus 125% ride – then another 5x takes you to 625% – that's starting with just 5% allocated to risk. That's almost as good as owning Bitcoin and should be enough to keep us ahead of inflation!
Let's have some fun out there – while it lasts!
