Courtesy of Mish.
Now that employment distortions related to the government shutdown in October are behind us, let’s take a detailed look at the recent and growing discrepancy between jobs as reported on the establishment survey and employment as reported on the household survey.
Jobs vs. Employment Discussion
Before diving into the details, it is important to understand limits on data, and how the BLS measures jobs in the establishment survey vs. employment in the household survey.
Establishment Survey: If you work one hour that counts as a job. There is no difference between one hour and 50 hours.
Establishment Survey: If you work multiple jobs you are counted twice. The BLS does not weed out duplicate social security numbers.
Household Survey: If you work one hour or 80 you are employed.
Household Survey: If you work a total of 35 hours you are considered a full time employee. If you work 25 hours at one job and 10 hours at another, you are a fulltime employee.
Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey
Over time, and with revisions, the two data series move in sync (as they should in normal conditions):
- People get jobs (employment should rise)
- People lose jobs (employment should drop)
However, there has been a serious discrepancy between the two data series in the last month that is not apparent in the above chart. A few tables will show what I mean.
Household vs. Establishment Year-Over-Year Comparisons …
