French Industrial Output Drops Unexpectedly; France Finance Minister in Complete Denial; Expect the Unexpected

Courtesy of Mish.

I am in a near-constant state of amusement regarding what economists and analysts expect vs. what happens. A perfect example came up today.

MarketWatch reports French Industrial Output Drops Unexpectedly.

French industrial output dropped unexpectedly in October for the second month in a row, data from national statistics bureau Insee showed Tuesday, providing a further indication of a weak start to the final quarter of 2013 in the euro zone.

Industrial production in the currency bloc’s second largest economy fell 0.3% in October from September, when it also fell 0.3%, Insee said. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a 0.2% rise in October.

The October decline confirms a steady shrinking of output in industry. Over the three months through October, industrial production was 0.6% below the previous three months, Insee said.

The disappointment comes after separate data showed Monday that German industrial production dropped 1.2% in October from the previous month.

Why Was This Unexpected?

This decline should have been completely expected. I can give you three reasons.

On December 2, the Markit France Manufacturing PMI final data showed “France PMI sinks to five month low as output and new orders fall at sharper rates“.
On December 4, the Markit France Services PMI final data showed “French service sector slips back into contraction in November“.
On December 4, the Markit Eurozone Composite PMI final data showed “Eurozone growth slows further as France and Italy suffer renewed contractions“.

If you are looking for a 4th bonus reason, please pencil in “Francois Hollande” and all the socialist ministers in his government.

From the third Markit link above …