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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Monetary Tectonics: 50 Slides Illustrate Tug of War Between Inflation and Deflation

Courtesy of Mish.

Mark J. Valek, CAIA, Partner & Fund Manager, at Incrementum AG sent a nice email earlier today regarding the inflation-deflation debate. Mark writes ….

Financial markets have become highly dependent on central bank policies. We sincerely believe that grasping the consequences of the interplay between monetary inflation and deflation is crucial for prudent investors these days. To express our views on this highly relevant topic, we have just finished our Incrementum Chartbook, explaining the dynamics of “monetary tectonics”.

Attached please find our new Incrementum Chartbook: 50 Slides Illustrating the Tug of War Between Inflation and Deflation!

We wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous new year!

Kind regards,

Ronald Stoeferle & Mark Valek

Here is the introduction from the 50 page PDF Incrementum Chartbook # 2: Monetary Tectonics

Our Conviction

Due to structural over – indebtedness and the resulting addiction to low/negative real interest rates, we are certain that the traditional way of thinking about financial markets and asset management is no longer beneficial for investors. Therefore, at Incrementum we evaluate all our investments not only from the perspective of the global economy but also in the context of the current state of the global monetary regime. This analysis produces what we consider a truly holistic view of the state of financial markets.

Financial markets have become highly dependent on central bank policies. Grasping the consequences of the interplay between monetary inflation and deflation is crucial for prudent investors.

We sincerely believe that the Austrian School of Economics provides us with the appropriate intellectual foundation, especially in this demanding financial and economic environment.

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Mark J. Valek

Here is a generous sampling of charts from the PDF, interspersed with a few comments by me, in italics. Click on any chart for a sharper image.

History of QE

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