We had a lot of trade ideas for our Members in February.
In the first two parts of our Trade Review alone (Part 1 and Part 2), we had 85 trade ideas for our Members in just two weeks and 74 of them (87%) turned out to be winners. As I noted at the close of Part 2, it's the losers that are most valuable during these reviews, as we often have a chance to take a great trade idea at an even better price than when we first liked it – all with the benefit of a little more retrospect.
Usually, we do our trade reviews through whatever arbitrary date we happen to be writing them but, since we FIRMLY went to CASH!!! in March, I am going to be teminating bullish plays from February on March expiration day (21st), the day we cashed our out Income Portfolio and they will be noted as such. That is not the case with the 2/10 trades right below, as I added those on 3/15 and I'm just getting to the rest of the week now. The rest will follow that rule for bullish trade ideas. If, however, I still like the trade idea, I will include the current price as there is still an opportunity to profit from it.
(**) still indicates trade ideas from our morning posts, which have been an incredibly successful group and are available pre-market, even to our Report Members.
Feb 10: Monday Market Movement – Bounced or Trounced?
Our finish on Friday had just enough volume where we didn't want to be any more bearish, but we are cautious as we did a lot of bottom-fishing in our Income Portfolio and our Long-Term Portfolio, when the S&P bottomed out on Wednesday, the 29th (see our January Trade Review)
We certainly didn't buy anything we wouldn't be happy to buy more of if that 1,750 line hadn't held on the S&P but, for now, we're drifting along with a healthy 5% pullback off that 25% run from last Feburary. Also note on the daily S&P chart that the MACD and RSI lines both seem to have bottomed out, so we certainly do have the technicals in place to rally back – now we'll see if enough buyers are there to pop our bounce lines.
- **10 SSO March $92/97 bull call spreads at $3.30 ($3,300) selling 5 ISRG April $300 puts for $5.20 ($2,600) for net $700, now net $4,250 – up $3,550 (507%)
- **ABX Jan $15/25 bull call spread at $2.30, selling 2016 $13 puts for $2.25 for net .05, now $4.25 – up 8,400%
- **10 SSO March $92/97 bull call spreads at $3.30 ($3,300), selling 5 AMZN April $325 puts for $5.60 ($2,800) for net $500, now $3,875 – up $3,375 (675%)
- **10 SSO March $92/97 bull call spreads at $3.30 ($3,300) selling 3 IBM 2016 $150 puts at $10.40 ($3,120) for net $180, now $2,016 – up $1,836 (1,020%)
- **10 SLW Jan $20/25 bull call spreads as $2.35 ($2,350), selling 5 CI 2016 $60 puts for $5 ($2,500) for a net $150 credit, now $1,200 – up $1,350 (900%)
So, there's a few bullish triggers we can pull if just two of our strong bounce lines are crossed today and, of course, we'll have plenty more in our Member Chat Room (these are just the free samples!). It's going to be a crazy week with Yellen speaking 3 times, including her introduction to Congress but we'll also here from noted Fed hawks; Plosser, Lacker and and Fisher ahead of our 10 and 30-year note auctions. Mixed messages are guaranteed this week – be careful out there.
Feb 11: Tuesday – Yellen Like Magellan
More free money?
That's the hope on which the markets are pinning this little rally as we bounce quickly off S&P support at 1,750 and already back to 1,800 – halfway back to 1,850 – making this little pullback the smallest of blips in the great bull rally of 2009 (now up 177% in 5 years).
What inflation? There's no inflation – unless you are buying stocks – then there has bee lots of inflation! The Fed has put $4 TRILLION into the markets through various operations and Global equities have gone up from about $30Tn to $80Tn. Don't worry though, if you add in what the BOJ, ECB and PBOC put into their ends of the markets, we're only about $40Tn shy – how could that possibly be a problem?
We're also looking to add our bullish hedges (see yesterday's post) assuming the Futures rally holds up and we hit our tartget levels of Dow 15,900, S&P 1,806, Nasdaq 4,135,NYSE 10,100 and Russell 1,126.
- **TSLA short at $200, now $212 – down 6%
- **SCTY short at $75, now $62.50 – up 16%
- **Russell (/TF) Futures short at 1,120, out at 1,117.50 – up $250 per contract
- **Oil (/CL) Futures short at $100.25, out at $99.75 – up $500 per contract
- S&P (/ES) Futures short at 1,800, out at 1,775 – up $1,250 per contract
- Oil (/CL) Futures short at $100.25, doubled down at $100.66 (conviction short, good discussion that day), out at $100 – up $910 on 2 contracts
- CLF 2016 $18 puts sold for $3.90, now $4.35 – down 11.5%
- 10 RIG 2016 $40/50 bull call spreads at $3.50 ($3,500) selling 5 2016 $40 puts for $6.32 ($3,160) for net $340, now -$375 – down 210%
- Gasoline (/RB) short at $2.75, out at $2.73 – up $840 per contact
- SHLD 2016 $40 puts sold for $16.25, out at $12.90 on 3/17 – up 20%
- QQQ weekly $88.50 puts at .35
Feb 12: No Worries Wednesday – Dammit Janet, We Love You!
The markets are loving our fiesty new Fed Chairwoman!
And why shouldn't they? Like the Joker in that first Batman movie – she's giving away free money – what could possibly go wrong? For almost 6 hours yesterday, Janet yellen testified before Congress and essentially said it would take an EXTREME change is circumstances for her Fed to take the foot off the economic gas pedal.
We did get over all 4 of our strong bounce lines at: Dow 15,900, S&P 1,806, Nasdaq 4,135,NYSE 10,100 and Russell 1,126, which signaled "game on" for our upside hedges (see Monday's post).
I'm sure our Members are well aware that I can rattle off dozens of things that can go wrong (and some that are going wrong, even as we speak), but I've written about all that before, so let's just say we remain skeptical but that shouldn't prevent us from taking the FREE MONEY – while it's being handed out….
**Oil (/CL) Conviction Futures short at $100.75, out at $100 – up $750 per contract
**Dow (/YM) Futures short at 15,950
**Gold (/YG) Futures short at $1,290
Oil Futures (/CL) short at $101.25, out at $100 – up $1,250 per contract
5,000 shares of LQMT at .20 ($1,000), out at .32 ($1,600) – up 60%
TZA July $17/25 bull call spread at $1.70, selling March $23 calls for .43 for net $1.27, now $1.80 – up 42%
Oil Futures (/CL) short at $101.25, out at $100.50 – up $750 per contract
Russell (/TF) Futures short at 1,130
CIM at $3.12, selling Jan $2.80 puts and calls for .55 for net $2.57/2.69, now $2.73 (including March dividend of 0.09) – on track
10 SSO March $94/99 bull call spread at $3.45 ($3,450), selling 1 AAPL 2016 $450 puts for $41 ($4,100) for net $650 credit, out at $1,500 – up $2,150 (330%)
10 SSO March $94/99 bull call spread at $3.45 ($3,450), selling 2 AMZN 2016 $240 puts for $16 ($3,200) for net $250. out at $2,200 – up $1,950 (780%)
10 SSO March $94/99 bull call spread at $3.45 ($3,450), selling 5 RIG 2016 $40 puts for $6.20 ($3,100) for net $350, out at $1,900 – up $1,550 (442%)
We do not run this economy for the benefit of humans – we run it for the benefit of Corporations and the very, very few humans who own them. America (and most of the World) has been brainwashed into believing that what's good for Corporations is good for this Country. It's hard to even think outside that box, but this is NOT going to end well, folks.
BTH Sept $10 calls at $1.20, still $1.20 – even
IN PROGRESS
