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Friday, December 27, 2024

The Gift of Fitness

The Gift of Fitness

An Unexpected Plunge Provided Opportunity

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

One of old favorites, LifeTime Fitness (LTM) hit a new yearly high recently at $56.94 after an activist hedge fund announced a big stake and started pushing for a REIT conversion.

Today, a minor brokerage firm downgraded LTM from Outperform to Neutral. They cut their price target from $59 to $54. That seems like no big deal.

Instead LTM plunged more than 11% to as low as $44.64 intraday. It had rebounded slightly to trade at $45.76 at about 3:10 PM.

I like this company and took advantage of the low price and high volatility to sell four contracts of the November 2014, $45 puts @ $3.30 per share.

LTM quote with Nov. $45 put

Our Virtual Put Writing Portfolio has made profits on LTM’s $45 puts twice before. Our obligation is to be ready to buy 400 LTM shares at a net cost of $41.70 per share ($45 strike price minus $3.30 put premium).

Our best case scenario will occur if LTM closes at $45 or higher on November 21, 2014. In that event we will pocket 100% of the $1,320 premium collected. The two-year chart below shows how infrequently LifeTime Fitness has been below that break-even price.

LTM  2-years (Daily) with Put break-even

LTM is a volatile stock that often seems to go up or down dramatically, often on unimportant news. Selling puts when the stock is down is a great way to participate while still maintaining a low-risk trading profile.

Disclosure:  Long LTM shares, short LTM covered calls, short LTM puts

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We also sold 6 contracts of the Aegion (AEGN) December 2014, $22.50 puts today for $2.12 per share.

Break-even drops down to $20.38 per share with the shares at $22.15.

AEGN   quote with Dec. $22.50 put.JPG plus 1-year chart

These are meant to replace our current position: short 6 AEGN $20 puts – which we expect will expire worthless (our best-case scenario) on June 21, 2014. We plan to simply leave these alone until expiration barring a further decline.

View our Virtual Put Writing Portfolio for details for our open and closed Put Selling trades.

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