Ukraine Split in Two; Expect Major Rebel Advance

Courtesy of Mish.

Writing is on the wall. It says, Ukraine is increasingly likely to split in two. Recent events appear to have sealed that fate.

• October 28: Russia Backs Plan by Ukraine Separatists for an Early Election
• October 31: Ukraine, France, Germany Urge Putin Not to Recognize Rebel Polls
• November 2: In Hope and Defiance, Voters in East Ukraine Go to Polls in Rebel Elections
• November 2: Pro-Russian rebels vote for leaders in eastern Ukraine
• November 2: Pro-Russian Rebel Alexander Zakharchenko Gets 81% of Vote
• November 2: Tass: Moscow Considers Elections in Eastern Ukraine Valid
• November 3: Ukraine Calls Emergency Meeting to Dael with Election Vote
• November 4: US, Ukraine Condemn "Sham Vote"
• November 4: Ukraine President Calls for Disputed Poll to be Annulled
• November 4: White House Slams Separatist Elections in Southeastern Ukraine.
• November 4: Ukraine Tension Rises as Poroshenko to End Autonomy Law "Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will ask parliament to revoke a law giving more autonomy to regions occupied by pro-Russian separatists after the rebels held elections condemned by the U.S. and the European Union."
• November 4: Ukrainian President Sends More Troops to the East
• November 5: Ukraine Rebels Say Annulment of Autonomy 'Cancels' Truce
• November 5: Ukraine Truce Teeters as Kerry, Merkel Warn on Sanctions
• November 6: Ukraine Begins "Large-Scale" Offensive In Donetsk; "War Has Resumed" Rebel Leader Warns
• November 8: Ukraine rebels seen moving large military convoys

Headline Summation

1. Ukraine rebels held polls.
2. In heavy turnout, vote was strongly pro-Russia.
3. Russia recognized the vote but Ukraine, the US, Germany didn't
4. The West threatens more sanctions.
5. Ukraine annuls cease-fire autonomy agreement.
6. Rebels cancel truce.
7. War resumes.

Reflections from Reader Jacob Dreizin

Hi Mish,

Allow me to chime in on another election. On November 2nd, the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples' Republics held elections to basically validate the existing, Moscow-backed rebel leadership that has come to the fore since roughly July-August of this year.  The turnout was incredible, considering that many residents of battered frontline towns braved potential artillery fire to get to the polling stations.

On a symbolic note, the elections were held exactly six months after the May 2nd massacre of 40-some pro-Russian demonstrators in Odessa, for which, incredibly, no one has yet been indicted.  (Several "investigations" were quietly abandoned months ago, as they were likely pointing to prominent nationalist groups in Kiev.)

Naturally, the EU and U.S. State Department are not happy with these elections, although they were quite happy with the Ukrainian parliamentary elections of October 26th, in which turnout was as low as 30% in some areas as parties more popular in the south and east were too intimidated to campaign or were simply banned.

In other news, Ukraine's Prime Minister Yatseniuk recently stated that Ukraine is open to buying coal from the rebel areas. This is a sign of desperation, which shows that buying coal from overseas (chiefly from South Africa) has not saved the day as there is simply not enough infrastructure to keep Ukrainian power plants continuously supplied with foreign coal. Also, some Ukrainian plants are specifically designed to burn certain grades of Donbass coal.

Already there have been many rolling blackouts and hot water cut-offs, and things will only get worse.  Keep in mind that water flowing to apartment buildings (for both washing/cooking and central heating) in the former USSR is typically heated by coal. So you can expect Ukraine to have a very rough winter.

Yatseniuk also said that while Ukraine will continue selling electricity to the rebel areas, it will no longer be paying out pensions or any other benefits to residents of rebel-held areas until such time as these areas return to Ukrainian control.

Although Kiev had already minimized these disbursements since summer, Yatseniuk's statement is the most formal and extreme announcement to that effect. This is a clear abdication of responsibility for the rebel areas as well as a de facto recognition that those people are no longer Ukrainians….