Guy on CNBC makes a good point. NO ONE is now pricing oil to go back over $30, not even two years from now. The USO 2017 $25s are $3 and the $32s can be sold for $1.50 for net $1.50 on the $7 spread. The net delta of the two is 0.19 so it would take another $5 drop in USO (25%) to lose $1.
If, for example, you were to buy $1,500 worth (10 contracts), you could put a stop at $1,000 (-$500) and that's your risk vs a potential reward of $7,000 - a $5,500 (366%) profit at $32. So reward is 10x the LIKELY risk (it's not likely oil drops so fast you can't stop out) and, after losing $500, you could set up a lower spread with the same 10x payback and you can be wrong 5 times before being right once and still end up very well off.
Top Trades for Mon, 22 Dec 2014 12:11
