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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Top Trades for Tue, 30 Dec 2014 10:31

CLD/Jabob - Coal is SO out of favor right now, it's a really tough call.  CLD is small and strong with good cost advantages, so not bad to play for recovery but, as with other materials plays, you have to be in it for the long run and planning to double down at $5 and again at $2.50 because cursing at it won't help if oil goes down to $40 and China's manufacturing (and electric use) doesn't pick up or if coal is limited in a climate accord in any way.  As with gold (where I go with ABX as they are biggest and best) with coal I prefer to stick with BTU.  In the last crash, I said that about 100 times and people said "what about this" and "what about that" and it turned out I was right as ABX popped back from $20 to $75.  Now it's at $8 and people don't want it?  

If you want to diversify your risk in coal, KOL is a good sector ETF and that's down from $50 to $14.66 (was $10 in 2009) and you can sell the July $14 puts for 0.85 for a nice net $13.15 entry and buy the $13/15 bull call spread for $1.30 for net 0.45 on the $2 spread - that's a nice way to get started. 

I also like BTU, of course, who just paid their 0.085 dividend (4.4%) at $7.85 conservatively selling the 2017 $5 puts for $1.10 and the $8 calls for $2.45 for net $4.30/4.65, which is 40% off the current price if assigned and a 0.34 dividend (8%) while you wait and another 86% profit if called away at $8 (up 2%) in Jan 2017.

 

Do you really like CLD better than that???

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