2008/Maya - No (or we would have dumped the LTP) because, in 2008, we had a housing bubble and we had an oil bubble and we had a banking bubble and all were based on false expectations of unsustainable prices. This is 7 years later and, even at 3% annual growth (normal for the planet), we should be 23% higher than we were then. As I've often said, it's not like another 700M people weren't born. Even at the global average per capita GDP of $8,000, that's still $5.6Tn more added to the Global economy since then.
So let's say the market was 40% overbought in 2008, now it would only be 20% overbought at the same levels. The distribution among the specific sectors and stocks may change but, overall, the broad market is just a reflection of the Global economy which means it's EXTREMELY unlikely that we'll have more than a 20% correction and even that would take a proper negative event to get us that low.
IRBT/Maya – This is a good spot for a long-term play. Let's say you don't mind owning $15,000 worth (500 shares) so you start by selling 2 2017 $28 puts for $6 for a net $22 entry on 200 and you can leave it at that as the margin is just $600 to collect $1,200 or you can use that $1,200 to buy 4 of the $28/33 bull call spreads for $3 for net $0 on the $5 spreads that are $3 in the money ($2,000 upside potential). Nothing wrong with that on our Stock of the Century.
If it goes down from here, then you should be THRILLED to use the uncommitted $9,000 of buying power to roll the calls lower and maybe DD on the puts and then you'll be committed to 400 shares at a net below $20 on the put side.
