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Thursday, December 26, 2024

Top Trades for Tue, 27 Jan 2015 13:21

NFLX/Pirate - They did have very good earnings and guidance and surely someone is getting squeezed.

CSCO/Yodi - There's one I'd love to get cheaply again.  

By the way, you guys always ask about CSCO because it's down 4% or PG down 3% as an "opportunity" but what about the ones that are down 50-80%?  Those are opportunities too!  

Just look over the charts (mostly from the Buy List) and think to yourself, which ones would you ABSOLUTELY want to own if the are 20% cheaper and then just sell some puts that let you own them 20% cheaper.  Now is a good time when the VIX is high. 

For example:

  • RIG 2017 $10 puts can be sold for $3 for a net $7 entry, less than 1/2 of the current price.  If you have $10,000 in an allocation block, you can sell 5 of the puts for $1,500 and only risk owning 500 for $7 ($3,500).  Meanwhile, you are collecting $1,500 back on a $10K allocation of which you are using about $350 of margin buying power.  That's a fantastic return on margin!  
  • BHI was already a Top Trade - my fists are sore from banging the table on that one. 
  • BTU we just discussed.  Is the coal biz so awful that this stock should be down $14 of $20 (70%) in less than a year?  Even if so, what about selling the 2017 $5 puts for $1.50?  You can sell 10 of those for $1,500 and your worst case is owning 1,000 shares for net $3.50 ($3,500).  That's a 42% return on your allocation and you're only committing about $400 in margin - super-efficient!  
  • ABX is interesting to me.  Do you REALLY think gold is no longer a thing.  It had a good run - about 100,000 years as the most desirable mineral on the planet but it's so 10 millennia ago, isn't it?

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