Financial Markets and Economy
This chart holds the key to predicting the next US recession (Business Insider)
During his presentation today, DoubleLine Capital's founder Jeff Gundlach was downbeat on many things — from oil to stocks.
What narrowest spread since 2009 between 2-year, 10-year Treasurys means (Market Watch)
Yield spreads between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys are at their narrowest since the end of the recession, and while that is raising some red flags that another recession is imminent, fixed-income strategists are saying that is not the case.
Asia shares retreat from two-month high on China concerns (Business Insider)
Asian shares stepped back further from two-month highs on Wednesday as a retreat in oil prices and weak Chinese trade data revived concerns about the health of the global economy.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.2 percent in early trade, shedding 1.4 percent from its two-month high hit on Monday. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0 percent in morning trade.
Crude Oil Confirms An Epic Failed Breakdown (All Star Charts)
Crude Oil confirmed a failed breakdown below the 2009 lows last week. This development is extremely important from a risk management standpoint and has big implications from an inter-market perspective.
Yen Gains as Stocks Slump, Gundlach Says Negative Rates Misfire (Bloomberg)
The yen is the world’s best performing currency this week as stocks around the world resumed declines, boosting demand for havens and counteracting the Bank of Japan’s negative interest-rate strategy.
A Future Without Jobs? Two Views of the Changing Work Force (NY Times)
In the utopian (dystopian?) future projected by technological visionaries, few people would have to work. Wealth would be generated by millions upon millions of sophisticated machines. But how would people earn a living?
Silicon Valley has an answer: a universal basic income. But what does that have to do with today’s job market, with many Americans squeezed by globalization and technological change?
Netflix Shares Are Falling Like a House of Cards (Fortune)
Netflix investors may feel like they are on an emotional rollercoaster similar to watching the streaming cable service’s series Jessica Jones.
Emerging markets are still too dangerous to be the 'trade of the decade' (Business Insider)
Investors searching for value have begun to look to emerging markets as the next great trade.
Copper Demand to Overtake Supply in 2017, Freeport Official Says (Bloomberg)
Copper demand won’t catch up with supply until 2017, according to a senior official at Freeport-McMoRan Inc., the largest publicly traded copper producer.
A Rare VIX Setup That Suggests A Sharp Drop May Be Near (Quantifiable Edges)
Monday was the 2nd day in a row where the SPX and VIX both closed higher. For those unaware, VIX is a measure of options volatility. It most often will trade inverse to the SPX. So it is unusual to see both SPX and VIX close higher. It is especially unusual to see this happen 2 days in a row. And even more so when SPX is below its 200ma. The study below looks at other times this has happened.
What History Teaches us about The Concentration of Wealth (Farnam Street)
History is economics in action, at least according to Karl Marx. Whether in a group or as an individual, we vie for food, fuel, raw materials and our place in the hierarchy. Even art is often rooted in conflict.
Why Oil Surged 50% In 6 Weeks (ETF)
Just when everyone thought they could only keep going lower, oil prices stunned the world and went the other way this year. From a low of around $27/barrel on Jan. 20, Brent crude oil rallied to more than $41 on Monday, March 7. That's a whopping 52% gain in just 6 ½ weeks.
Lumber Liquidators Falls After Tilson Shorts It for Second Time (Bloomberg)
Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. tumbled 15 percent after hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson said that he’s betting against the company for a second time.
“When You Think of Something, Do the Opposite”, Says Morgan Stanley (Value Walk)
Risk management is certainly difficult, and there’s no denying that, especially at a time of diminishing appetite for risk. But how do you manage risk at a time when the markets are exceedingly volatile? Oddly enough, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Parker, Ph.D. suggests that investors just do the opposite of what they think they should do in a note titled “When You Think of Something, Do the Opposite.”
When Measures Become Targets: How Index Investing Changes Indexes (Investor Field Guide)
In Vietnam, under French colonial rule, there was a rat problem. To solve the rat infestation, the French offered a bounty on rats, which could be collected by delivering a rat’s tail as proof of murder. Many bounties were paid out, but the rat problem didn’t improve. Officials soon noticed rats running around without tails–people were cutting off the tails and releasing the rats to breed, so as to increase the pool of potential bounty revenue for themselves.
Treasuries Surge as Global Investors Clamor for Government Debt (Bloomberg)
Treasuries surged, with U.S. 10-year yields falling by the most in more than two weeks, after a steep rally in Japanese debt carried through into global markets.
Politics
Trump Has Three-Point GOP Lead, Poll Finds (Wall Street Journal)
Donald Trump holds a narrow, three-point lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows, with the data revealing potential cracks in his support. Meanwhile, voters in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi have their say in presidential nominating races.
Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Narrows Slightly in New Poll (Wall Street Journal)
Hillary Clinton’s national lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders narrowed slightly to nine points among Democratic primary voters, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
Why Michigan Voters Are Hungry for Change (The Atlantic)
A death in the family brought me home to Michigan last week and put me into a rental car, careening between potholes along a familiar stretch of I-75 populated by a diverse and anxious public struggling to choose a president.
Among them are friends and family, but also brief acquaintances—relationships forged over coffee and a reporter’s notebook.
Technology
Root for the Robot (Bloomberg View)
This week in Seoul, in what has been dubbed the "ultimate challenge" for artificial intelligence, a man will face off against a computer in the ancient game of go. If you're reading this, you may be tempted to cheer for the man. But this is the rare battle of wits in which you should actually root for the robot.
The U.S. Government Launches a $100-Million "Apollo Project of the Brain" (Scientific American)
Three decades ago, the U.S. government launched the Human Genome Project, a 13-year endeavor to sequence and map all the genes of the human species. Although initially met with skepticism and even opposition, the project has since transformed the field of genetics and is today considered one of the most successful scientific enterprises in history.
Health and Life Sciences
Stem cell 'link' to repeat miscarriages (BBC)
A lack of stem cells in the womb lining causes thousands of women to suffer repeat miscarriages, according to researchers.
University of Warwick scientists said the womb lining in recurrent miscarriage patients they studied was "already defective" before pregnancy.
Big tongue and tonsils raise risk for sleep apnea (Futurity)
The best time to identify signs of obstructive sleep apnea may not be at night while snoozing in bed, but while sitting in the dentist’s chair.
A Genetic Mutation Could Save You From A Heart Attack (Popular Science)
Though they may come as a surprise, heart attacks don’t just happen at random—chances are, years of poor diet and not enough exercise set the stage for a heart attack to occur. Over the past few years, researchers have learned that genetics also play a role, discovering variations that increase a person’s chances of having a heart attack. Now scientists have discovered another mutation that does the opposite: people who have it run a 50 percent lower risk of having a heart attack. They also had lower levels of triglycerides in the blood, both of which might provide a new target for medications intended to prevent heart attacks. The research was published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Life on the Home Planet
Total solar eclipse captivates Asia (BBC)
Millions of people across Indonesia and the Pacific have experienced a total solar eclipse, with parts of the region falling into complete darkness.
The eclipse began at 06:19 local time (23:19 GMT Tuesday) as the Moon started to pass directly in front of the Sun.
