Financial Markets and Economy
The Fed Wants Markets to Stop Taking the Dot Plot So Seriously (Bloomberg)
Since the day they were unveiled in January 2012, the Federal Reserves interest rate forecasts have been criticized for taking on too much importance and become fodder for mockery in financial markets.
Bubbles Spread Like a Zombie Virus (Bloomberg View)
The leading academic theory of asset bubbles is that they don’t really exist. When asset prices skyrocket, say mainstream theorists, it might mean that some piece of news makes rational investors realize thatfundamental values like corporate earnings are going to be a lot higher than anyone had expected. Or perhaps some condition in the economy might make investors suddenly become much more tolerant of risk. But according to mainstream theory, bubbles are not driven by speculative mania, greed, stupidity, herd behavior or any other sort of psychological or irrational phenomenon. Inflating asset values are the normal, healthy functioning of an efficient market.
We’re in a Bunny Market (A Wealth of Common Sense)
Since the end of 2014 there has been plenty of movement in the stock market but the S&P 500 hasn’t really gone anywhere.
Under the Hood of Korean GDP, Park's $30,000 Goal Proves Elusive (Bloomberg)
Heres a key takeaway from South Koreas gross domestic product report released Friday: Slowing economic growth and a weaker currency have pushed President Park Geun Hyes goal of $30,000 per capita income outside her reach, at least for now.
Why it’s too early to declare an end to the currency wars (Market Watch)
There may be a “lull” under way in the currency wars that have seen the world’s central banks taking action to weaken their currencies in a bid to gain an advantage against their global trading counterparts.
The Problem With Average (The Irrelevant Investor)
“Statistician, a person who lays with his head in a oven and his feet in a deep freeze stating, On the average, I feel comfortable”- Bruce Grossman
Oil rig count falls by 15 (Business Insider)
The US oil rig count fell 15 to 372 this week, according to driller Baker Hughes.
Five-Week Rally Halted in U.S. Stocks as Energy Finally Falters (Bloomberg)
You knew it had to end sometime.
Chinese Buy One-Third of Vancouver Homes: National Bank Estimate (Bloomberg)
Buyers from China comprised about one-third of purchases of Vancouver’s hot housing market in 2015, according to "back of the envelope calculations" by National Bank of Canada.
Gas Prices Will Be Low for Easter, but Don’t Get Used to It (NY Times)
Gas prices for the Easter weekend will be the lowest in over a decade. But don’t be fooled — they’re still going up.
The Fed Fails to Connect the Dots (Bloomber View)
A widely misinterpreted graph only muddies the central bank's message.
This 'Asian Tiger' might have to turn to negative interest rates (Business Insider)
Taiwan slashed rates for the third time in six months on Thursday.
US financial firms are eager to capitalize on Cuba (Quartz)
The reinstatement of diplomatic ties between the US and Cuba is expected give a big boost to the Cuban economy. US companies in the hospitality industry like Airbnb and Starwoodclearly stand to benefit, but so do financial companies that can help businesses expand to the US and move money in and out of Cuba.
Has The Stock Market Rally Made Investors Complacent? (See It Market)
Data from the volatility market suggests that stock market expectations in the near-term may have finally gotten a bit too complacent.
Wall Street Forecasts and YTD Returns (CFA Institute)
To put it mildly, some investors have suffered unexpected losses due to the continued market volatility at the start of 2016. This is in spite of the fact that, according to leading Wall Street pundits, the markets were supposed to rise by 8% this year. The chorus said that interest rates were going up, so stocks were the place to be.
The March U.S. employment report and other key economic numbers next week could help U.S. stocks resume their recent winning path as long as that data hits the sweet spot: Not strong enough to add to worries about further interest rate hikes, yet not weak enough to cause concern about a recession.
Reports on the housing market could also draw investors' attention given recent sharp gains in homebuilder stocks.
A Really Big Stock Index Is Hitting Resistance (Dana Lyon's Tumblr)
This will be our last in a series on major U.S. stock indices encountering areas of potential key resistance on their charts – any more would really be redundant. The post-February rally has been impressive in its breadth and pace. One by one, however, the averages have been reaching levels on their respective charts that, in our view, represent significant potential areas of resistance. That includes small caps, big caps and, as we point out in today’s Chart Of The Day, a big index.
Politics
Democrats Can Take a Hint From GOP's Winning Ways (Bloomberg View)
Let's suppose the polls are right: Running against Donald Trump, the Democrats win the White House in a walk, perhaps retake the Senate, and maybe even come within a hair's breadth of picking up a majority in the House. Will the 2016 elections thus usher in a sea change in the nation’s politics?
Lasting Damage for G.O.P.? Young Voters Reject Donald Trump (NY Times)
To understand the concern, and in some cases the panic, of many Republican officials over Donald Trump, consider this fact: Young people generally don’t like him. The potential of losing an election is one thing, but as polling numbers suggest, the Trump brand could weigh on the G.O.P. for a generation.
“Brazil in Drag”: Hyman Minsky on Donald Trump (J.W. Mason)
Via Nathan Cedric Tankus, here is a recent JPKE article by Kevin Capehart on a 1990 lecture by Minsky that uses Trump as a case study of asset market bubbles in the 1980s. The lecture is fascinating, and not just as an odd historical artifact.
Ted Cruz Calls Donald Trump a "Sniveling Coward" (Mother Jones)
This is where the Republican primary is at right now. The latest drama over Trump began earlier this week, when an anti-Trump group unaffiliated with the Cruz campaign ran ads shaming Trump's wife, Melania, for having once posed nude inGQ. Trump accused Cruz of putting the group up to it (which would be illegal), and then promised to "spill the beans" on Heidi Cruz. On Wednesday, Trump used his Twitter account to quote a tweet that included a photo of Melania next to a photo of Heidi Cruz, with the tag line, "the images are worth a thousand words." So Cruz has reason to be pissed—and to his larger point, Trump really does have a problem with women.
Technology
Engineers have built a device that mimics the surface of the eye in an attempt to make wearing contact lenses all day less irritating.
The work was inspired in part by a graduate student’s dry eyes.
Health and Life Sciences
Life Is Complicated, But Now Scientists Can Keep It Simple (Bloomberg View)
Astronomer Fred Hoyle famously quipped in 1982 that the odds of a simple living thing assembling itself from inanimate chemicals were as slim as the chance that a tornado passing through a junkyard would leave in its wake a Boeing 747.
Scientists Build A Living Cell With Minimum Viable Number Of Genes (Pop Sci)
And they still don't understand what a third of them are for
Now a team led by scientists from the J. Craig Venter Institute in California has synthesized a cell with the smallest number of genes necessary for life: 473.
Understanding And Overcoming Anxiety (Forbes)
Only about one-third of those suffering from an anxiety disorder receive treatment, even though the disorders are highly treatable. Cognitive behavioral therapy is helpful to teach individuals to become able to better recognize maladaptive thought patterns, and the concurrent bodily sensations that might precede or accompany those patterns, as well as external situations that might trigger anxiety and the capacity to respond differently.
Life on the Home Planet
Terror Attacks in Europe Aim to Inspire New Recruits (Wall Street Journal)
The message from Brussels reinforces the warning from Paris four months earlier: Islamic State has the capability to commit deadly terrorist attacks in the heart of Europe. To keep its mission alive, it must do more of the same.
As it tries to do this, the group has two strategic advantages. Conflict in Syria and Iraq has permitted the group to establish a home territory. And the refugee flows into Europe have allowed it to embed its fighters into the thousands of people fleeing the war zones.
Warmer weather, finer wines (Harvard Gazette)
A word of advice, oenophiles. Start stocking up now.
In recent years, French vintners have produced a number of exceptional vintages, and Elizabeth Wolkovich, assistant professor of organismic and evolutionary biology, says that climate change is part of the reason why. As climate change continues to drive temperatures higher, however, that recent winning streak could soon come to an end.
Attacks On Transportation Targets Like Those In Brussels Have Become Rarer (Five Thirty Eight)
Three explosions struck Brussels on Tuesday morning — two in the city’s international airport and one in a subway station. Dozens were killed and more were injured. The brutality of the bombings was sadly familiar, as were their targets. The attacks in Brussels echoed the 2004 Madrid train bombings and the 2005 London subway bombings.
