Financial Markets and Economy
Dallas Fed manufacturing index rises more than expected (Business Insider)
A reading of manufacturing activity in Texas rose more than expected this month, joining the list of a number of other regional gauges that have recently rebounded.
5 top Wall Street bankers explain why the IPO market has dried up — and when things will pick up again (Business Insider)
Times are tough in the market for initial public offerings.
2016 has seen the fewest IPO deals, and lowest deal value, since the gloomy post-financial-crisis days of 2009.
Fed's Williams Sees 'Huge Impact' on U.S. From China, Brazil (Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said the global economy, particularly China and Brazil, was having a significant impact on measures that U.S. policy makers watch to determine interest rates.
Hedge Funds Have a Performance Problem (Bloomberg Gadfly)
Hedge funds have had a tough go of it lately. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index – an equal-weighted index of hedge funds – was down 1.1 percent in 2015, and is down another 2.3 percent through February of this year.
The Trouble With Predictions (Bloomberg View)
Policy makers have made some famously bad predictions over the past eight years. Given how this undermines public trust, it's worth considering how they could do better.
One Third Of Q1 Economic Growth Was Just "Revised" Away (Zero Hedge)
On Friday, the US government's Bureau of Economic Analysis had some good and some not so good news: the good news was that the final estimate of Q4 GDP was revised higher from 1.0% to 1.4% (driven by an odd rebound in spending on Transportation and Recreational services). The bad news was that pre-tax earnings tumbled 7.8%, the most since the first quarter of 2011, after a 1.6 percent decrease in the previous three months, suggesting that with corporate profitability crashing, it is only the "strong" US consumer that is keeping the US economy afloat.
The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast has resumed its rightful place as a harbinger of economic doom (Business Insider)
And we're back.
After several weeks of upbeat forecasts, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast — which has beenclosely tracked in recent quarters as it was the only forecast in the first quarter of 2015 to nailthat disappointing GDP number — is projecting a dismal first quarter for the US economy once again.
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What Low Oil Prices Really Mean (HBR)
Since the start of 2016, oil prices have swung between $27 and $42 per barrel, about a quarter of the 2008 peak crude oil price of $145. On February 16, oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela agreed to a tentative deal to freeze their production in an attempt to boost prices. This was a characteristic move. For decades, this is how the oil business has worked. Producers carefully control production to try to match supply to demand. But there’s a lag between these decisions and their effects, creating the boom and bust cycles so typical in the business.
Brazil Analysts Forecast Slower Inflation and Deeper Recession (Bloomberg)
Brazil analysts trimmed their 2016 inflation forecast after price increases slowed more than all analysts expected in March and the economy showed signs of a deeper contraction.
From “Extreme Overbought” to Just “Overbought” (Be Spoke)
Below is a look at our trading range screen for the 30 largest country ETFs traded on U.S. exchanges. For each country ETF, the dot represents where it is currently trading within its range.
Big Coal dealt a big blow: Montanans shut down largest mine in North America (Salon)
Montana communities won a victory against one of the world’s biggest coal companies earlier this month, when Arch Coal abandoned the Otter Creek mine – the largest proposed new coal strip mine in North America. The story of how the project imploded is one of people power triumphing over a company once thought to be nearly invincible.
If Brazil's President Gets Impeached, This Is What Will Happen To Their Currency (Forbes)
Barring a change of heart within Brazil’s big tent PMDB party, Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff will not survive a congressional impeachment vote. Next week, PMDB, once an ally to Dilma’s ruling Workers’ Party (PT) will decide whether or not they are for Dilma or against her. To survive, she has to hope they are for her. Or hope they remain split and that the 25 undecided votes in the Senate go her way. She will need at least half of them to go her way because around 30 of the 81 senators are already committed to kicking Dilma to the curb the second they get the chance.
Japan's Abe expected to delay sales tax rise, call snap election – again (Reuters)
In late 2014, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe caught markets and voters off-guard when he postponed an unpopular sales tax hike and called a snap election. Less than two years later, the only surprise will be if he doesn't repeat the play.
"Texas Manufacturing Activity Rebounds in March" (Calculated Risk)
Texas factory activity expanded slightly in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to positive territory this month—coming in at 3.3—after two months of negative readings.
Rumors Of The Industrial Sector’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated (Value Walk)
If there has been one narrative for the U.S. economy over the past several months, it is that the U.S. consumer is strong, but the industrial sector is experiencing near recession-level weakness due to global turbulence and low commodity prices. But with the narrative of “industrial demise” as deeply ingrained as it is, we think investors should question whether that assumption still holds true. As Mark Twain might have said, rumors of the industrial sector’s demise are greatly exaggerated.
Despite Dieselgate, Toyota And Volkswagen Are In A Dead Heat For Sales Crown? (Forbes)
Wouldn’t it be highly ironic if much-maligned Volkswagen AG, black sheep of the automakers, some even say criminal, ends this year as the czar of cars, the world’s largest automaker? There are 50:50 odds that it will happen.
January Spending Surge "Revised" Away, Pushing Savings Rate To Highest Since 2012; Personal Income Slides (Zero Hedge)
In February headline data for income modestly beat expectations (+0.2% MoM vs +0.1% MoM) and spending met expectations at +0.1% MoM respectively.
No exit (Economist)
In the weeks after December 17th, when the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nearly ten years, confident Fed officials told markets to expect four additional rate hikes in 2016.
Something Just Snapped In The VIX ETF Complex (Zero Hedge)
As TVIX, the double-levered long VIX ETF unleashed in Nov 2010, decays to record low prices.
Has The Biggest Of All Bubbles Popped: Central Bank Omnipotence (Mark St. Cyr)
Since the initial turmoil began with the onset of what is now referred to as “The great financial crisis.” One strategy has proven more profitable than any other. That strategy? BTFD
Politics
Hillary Clinton is fundamentally honest (The Guardian)
It’s impossible to miss the “Hillary for Prison” signs at Trump rallies. At one of the Democratic debates, the moderator asked Hillary Clinton whether she would drop out of the race if she were indicted over her private email server. “Oh for goodness – that is not going to happen,” she said. “I’m not even going to answer that question.”
How the G.O.P. Elite Lost Its Voters to Donald Trump (NY Times)
The manufacturing executives had gathered in an Atlanta conference room last year to honor their senior United States senator, Johnny Isakson, for his tireless efforts on their behalf in Washington. But as the luncheon wound down, Mr. Isakson found himself facing a man from Coweta County. The man, Burl Finkelstein, said trade policies with Mexico and China were strangling the family-owned kitchen-parts company he helped manage, and imperiling the jobs it provided. Mr. Isakson politely brushed him off, Mr. Finkelstein recalled, as he had many times before.
The Money Is On Hillary Cliton To Bury Donald Trump (Info Wars)
Prediction one: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will win their parties’ nominations. Prediction two: Clinton will take the White House handily. At least, that’s what political wagering websites say.
These operations, which distill the wisdom of crowds, turn out to be surprisingly solid when it comes to predicting presidential races. Their record for accuracy outdoes that of opinion polls.
Technology
Why I’m convinced the robots are already here and only getting stronger (Business Insider)
Sometimes, the field of artificial intelligence looks pretty ridiculous, like when Microsoft's teen chatbot was tricked by online trolls to say racist and sexist things.
But as a whole, AI technology isn't just getting better; it's also becoming a more integral part of our lives. Consider how it's affecting our working world.
U.S. Says 7 Million Drones Will Take to Skies Annually by 2020 (Bloomberg)
Annual sales of drones in the U.S. will hit 2.5 million this year and swell to 7 million by 2020, according to a projection from the Federal Aviation Administration.
Health and Life Sciences
Vietnam’s Battle With Tuberculosis (NY Times)
Dr. Bui Xuan Hiep, the head of tuberculosis control in this city’s Hoang Mai district, paged proudly through a large handwritten patient log.
“This district’s cure rate averages 90 percent,” he said. Still, Dr. Bui could see problems.
Study shows Theranos tests are more inconsistent than standard blood tests (The Next Web)
One of the biggest charges levied against unicorn science startup Theranos is that its ground-breaking technology — which supposedly requires a fractional amount of blood — is neither reliable nor accurate compared to traditional blood tests. And in the first independent study published about the techniques, those critics might be onto something. The study, conducted by the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, tested 60 adults to compare uncertainty and accuracy across 22 common clinical lab tests offered by Theranos and its more traditional competitors, Quest and LabCorp.
Life on the Home Planet
In Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State is in retreat on multiple fronts (Washington Post)
As European governments scramble to contain the expanding terrorist threat posed by the Islamic State, on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria the group is a rapidly diminishing force.
These are the real differences between Americans and Europeans (World Economic Forum)
When it comes to personal values, there are some big differences between American and Europeans. A survey from Pew Research Center looks at how the views of people in America and some Western European countries compare. The most notable difference is in the views of individualism.
U.S. Population Aging Slower than Other Countries, Census Bureau Reports (U.S. Census)
America’s 65-and-over population is projected to nearly double over the next three decades, ballooning from 48 million to 88 million by 2050. However, the U.S. Census Bureau projects the U.S. population will age at a slower rate compared with other countries.
Worldwide, the 65-and-over population will more than double to 1.6 billion by 2050, according to An Aging World: 2015.
