Financial Markets and Economy
The New York Fed has unveiled a hot new forecasting tool for the US economy (Business Insider)
Not to be outdone by the Atlanta Fed, the New York Federal Reserve has created its own new tool to forecast US economic growth.
Stocks Rise Around World as Commodities Advance; Bonds, Yen Drop (Bloomberg)
Stocks rose with commodities, while the yen and government bonds slipped, as oil’s advance above $40 a barrel boosted economic optimism.
Short Interest Highest Since 2009, And Hedge Fund Squeeze Pain Could Continue (Value Walk)
Short interest is sky-high right now, although it may seem counterintuitive for it to be. If you were a chef mixing up a batch of short interest, you certainly wouldn’t use these ingredients: a year-to-date increase in oil prices; a massive rally in high yield; a declining U.S. dollar; and a dovish Fed.
Bull Run In Commodities Ending (Value Walk)
Commodities have performed well in 2016, particularly since late January. But the relative rally in commodities might be short-lived, a Barclays research piece observes. In fact, a rather dramatic fall in commodity prices could be ahead.
Bond Traders Show Skepticism of Goldman's Forecast for Fed Hikes (Bloomberg)
Bond traders are betting the odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year are less than a coin toss, clashing with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s call for three moves.
IMF Cuts 2016 Global Economic Growth Outlook to 3.2% (Wall Street Journal)
The world economy is increasingly at risk of stalling, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday as it once again cut its forecast for global growth prospects.
Oil hits 2016 high above $43 on producer meeting hopes (Reuters)
Oil rose above $43 a barrel to its highest level so far in 2016 on Tuesday, supported by hopes that a meeting of oil producers will agree steps to tackle a supply glut, a weak U.S. dollar and further signs of strong demand in China.
U.S. Economic Confidence Index Dips to -14 (Gallup)
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy retreated last week, with the U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaging -14 for the week ending April 10. This is down from -10 in the previous week, and is in the lower range of what Gallup has measured over the past year.
How to Make the Fed Work Better (Bloomberg View)
The U.S. Federal Reserve is an unusual institution: It makes key policy decisions on behalf of the public, yet its constituent parts – the twelve regional Feds – are legally part of the private sector. In a new series ofproposals, Professor Andrew Levin of Dartmouth University argues that making the regional Feds into truly public institutions is crucial to improving the Fed's accountability, transparency and governance.
Brexit could cause severe damage (BBC)
The UK's exit from the European Union could cause "severe regional and global damage", the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest outlook.
A so-called "Brexit" would disrupt established trading relationships and cause "major challenges" for both the UK and the rest of Europe, it said.
Why some analysts are nearly throwing in the towel on the S&P 500 this year (Market Watch)
Anyone holding out hopes of a surprise uplift from Alcoa got a massive letdown instead yesterday — a 92% drop in profits-sized letdown.
Average Corporate Credit Rating Hits 15-year Low (Value Walk)
“Corporate sector metrics have been disappointing of late… Companies are scaling back expenditures of all kinds (capital expenditures, hiring, and inventory-builds, for example), as their top-line revenues and earnings decelerate.
If corporations are people, they’re probably sad people (Quartz)
Profits still matter.
Banks Face Massive New Headache on Oil Loans (Wall Street Journal)
The $147 billion question for banks: Will energy companies max out their credit lines?
Wells Fargo Misjudged the Risks of Energy Financing (Bloomberg)
At its annual investor conference in San Francisco in May 2014, with oil trading at $102 a barrel, Wells Fargo & Co. boasted that in just two years it had almost doubled its energy exposure and seized the title of Wall Street’s top oil and gas banker.
Stocks edge up, but concern over corporate results persists (Reuters)
A rise in oil prices and gains for some European banking shares helped prod stock markets into positive territory on Tuesday, in a week dominated by what second-quarter corporate earnings will say about the state of global markets and growth.
Deutsche Bank Freezes North Carolina Expansion, in Protest of Bias Law (Deal B%k, NY Times)
Deutsche Bank, the German financial giant that has a significant business in the United States, said on Tuesday that it would freeze its plans to add jobs in North Carolina, a response to the passage last month of a state law that, among other things, eliminates antidiscrimination protections based on sexual orientation.
Politics
Sanders Can't Say No to the Hottest Ticket in Town (Bloomberg)
“In New York, you can be a new man.” So goes a line from the runaway Broadway hit "Hamilton," which is sold out through January. Tickets, if you can find them, go for as much as $2,000. So how did Bernie Sanders, Man of the People, score two seats in the orchestra for $334 on Friday night?
By being a new man; how else? Landing in the section reserved for dignitaries, Sanders and his wife were surely in elbow-rubbing range of those for whom the game is favorably rigged — hazardous company for a populist.
Trump up to 60 percent in New York (The Hill)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a whopping 43-point lead in New York, according to a new poll.
Trump has 60 percent support in the Empire State, according to a NY1/Baruch College survey released late Monday.
Technology
The New Zumwalt Stealth Destroyer Is Too Stealthy (Gizmodo)
The USS Zumwalt, a Navy destroyer years in the making, is a floating piece of technological wonder. But the neatest feature is tricking nearby radar into thinking its massive 610-foot hull is actually just a 50-foot fishing boat. In fact the ship is so good at going undetected, it’s too stealthy.
That’s why the United States Navy plans to affix huge reflectors onto the USS Zumwalt to avoid wreaking havoc on local mariners, which makes sense since this ship is about 50 times more stealthy than current destroyers.
The HTC 10 Is a Nice Phone—That’s All We Have to Say About It (Wired)
Once upon a time, HTC ruled the smartphone world. Or could at least argue that it did. When it came to design, the Taiwanese company showed particular chops, consistently churning out high-end devices that stood out in a sea of crappy plastic iPhone knockoffs. Over the last few years, though, everything has fallen apart. As Samsung, Huawei, and every other Android manufacturer upped its design game, HTC kept on keepin’ on, which in this business means falling behind.
Health and Life Sciences
Aspirin a day may push death away, says study (CNN)
New recommendations on daily aspirin use will likely stir the pot in the ongoing aspirin debate. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force published a final recommendation statement on Monday saying that taking an aspirin a day might help prevent cardiovascular disease and colon cancer.
Could eating rare steak give you road rage? Parasitic bug 'infects half of adults' (Daily Mail)
Could eating rare-cooked meat give you road rage? That is the intriguing question posed by new research into the parasitic bug toxoplasma gondii which will, at some point, infect half of adults.
Cervicogenic Headache and Cervical Spine Manipulation (Science-Based Medicine)
A cervicogenic headache has been defined as a secondary headache (beginning in the suboccipital area) caused by nerve pain referred from a source in the upper cervical spine. According to the American Migraine Foundation, “To confirm the diagnosis of cervicogenic headache, the headache must be relieved by nerve blocks….Treatment includes nerve blocks, physical therapy, exercise, Botox injections, and medication. Physical therapy and an ongoing exercise regime often produce the best outcomes.”
Why Is Arthritis More Common in Women Than Men? (NY Times)
Roughly one in four women have been given diagnoses of arthritis, compared with about one in five men, according to national health figures. But there are more than a hundred different kinds of arthritis, said Dr. Kelly Weselman, a rheumatologist who spoke on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology, and while some types disproportionately affect women, there are also forms that affect men more.
Clampdown on cosmetic surgery cowboys (BBC)
The body that regulates UK doctors is bringing in new guidelines for cosmetic procedures to stop rogue practitioners who put profits before patients.
Life on the Home Planet
Using Game Theory to Break the Climate Gridlock (The Atlantic)
Let the game begin! I was very excited by my colleague Andrew McGill’s work to bring game theory into the context of the election. Long story short, the weird three-sided game of chicken between GOP #NeverTrump leaders, voters, and candidates can be explained by game theory, which uses mathematical concepts to model and predict interactions between multiple decision-makers. Essentially, the game of endorsements and counter-endorsements, the dance of pledges, and the calculus of electability are all based on complex webs of predictive decisions that can actually be modeled.
