“Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible.”
Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker
A timely reminder from George Orwell:
Power worship blurs political judgement because it leads, almost unavoidably, to the belief that present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible. If the Japanese have conquered south Asia, then they will keep south Asia for ever, if the Germans have captured Tobruk, they will infallibly capture Cairo; if the Russians are in Berlin, it will not be long before they are in London: and so on. This habit of mind leads also to the belief that things will happen more quickly, completely, and catastrophically than they ever do in practice. The rise and fall of empires, the disappearance of cultures and religions, are expected to happen with earthquake suddenness, and processes which have barely started are talked about as though they were already at an end…
Nations, governments, classes and social systems are constantly described as expanding, contracting, decaying, dissolving, toppling, crashing, crumbling, crystallising, and, in general, behaving in an unstable and melodramatic way. The slowness of historical change, the fact that any epoch always contains a great deal of the last epoch, is never sufficiently allowed for. Such a manner of thinking is bound to lead to mistaken prophecies, because, even when it gauges the direction of events rightly, it will miscalculate their tempo…the instinct to bow down before the conqueror of the moment, to accept the existing trend as irreversible.
What you think is destined to happen is not necessarily what will happen. The existing trend is not irreversible. Whoever is winning at the moment will not definitely be the ultimate victor.
It only feels that way. It always feels that way.
Hang on a bit longer and watch.
