Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
Today’s employment report shows an increase of 38,000 jobs, well under the Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate of 158,000 jobs and below the entire consensus range of 110,000 to 219,000.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +208,000 to +186,000, and the change for April was revised from +160,000 to +123,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 116,000 per month.
The household survey was worse. Employment rose a mere 26,000. That is on top of a decline last month of 316,000.
Adding insult to injury, part-time employment for economic reasons soared by 468,000.
The unemployment rate declined to 4.7% because a whopping 458,000 people dropped out of the labor force.
Rate Hike Not
Forget about a rate hike in June. Unless there is strong data for a month, you can write off a hike in July too.
— Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) June 3, 2016
Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.
