Financial Markets and Economy
Corporate Profits Cloud U.S. Investment, Hiring Outlook (Bloomberg)
Before-tax corporate earnings fell 4.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive decline and the worst streak since the end of the recession in mid-2009, Commerce Department figures showed on Friday.
Central bankers ponder moving the goalposts (Financial Times)
Central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual Federal Reserve symposium on economics are in a challenging position.
Thought Volcker Rule Went Too Far? There’s More Coming for Banks (Bloomberg)
After years of grappling with the Dodd-Frank Act, banks will soon learn what regulators want to do next to rein in Wall Street’s risky investments.
Grim employment prospects for young people around the world (The Economist)
A NEW report from the International Labour Organisation has provided a snapshot of job prospects for young people around the world. Things have worsened this year following a period of slight improvement.
S&P 500 Earnings Decline For Fifth Consecutive Quarter (Value Walk)
With 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date for Q2 2016, 71% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% have reported sales above the mean estimate.
Here's Why High-Yield Bonds Are Much Riskier Than Most Investors Realize (Money Morning)
The high?yield bond area has been a Petri dish for misapplied financial theories and assumptions for years.
High-yield bonds are properly understood as hybrid securities that possess the characteristics of both debt and equity.
Markit Chief Economist Estimates 3rd Quarter GDP at “Just Under 1.0 Percent” (MishTalk)
Ahead of the advance (first) report of 2nd quarter GDP, Markit Chief economist Chris Williamson estimated second quarter at 1.0%.
Oil Pivoting to the Upside (Slope of Hope)
Before the open today, I noted to our members that crude oil is starting to look and act like the correction off of the Aug 19 high at $48.75 in the USO into this morning’s low at $46.42 is at, or very near, completion. If accurate, this also means that oil is close to pivoting to the upside into another upleg that projects to $51-$52 next.
WTI Technical Analysis Signals ‘Sell’ to Some Investors: Chart (Bloomberg)
A closely-watched technical indicator signals West Texas Intermediate crude may decline, according to Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York.
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.26.16 (Ritholtz)
Succinct Summations for the week ending August 26th 2016
Oil steady in volatile session, down 2 percent for the week (Reuters)
Oil prices were largely unchanged on Friday in a volatile session, as traders reacted to comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and reports of missile activity in Saudi Arabia.
The rich are getting more secretive with their money (Business Insider)
You might think the Panama Papers leak would cause the ultrarich to seek more transparent tax havens.
Here’s Why Existing Home Sales Are In Unsustainable Path (Contra Corner)
The NAR reported a decline of 3.2% in existing home sales in July. This was the seasonally adjusted fudgepack number. It prompted the Dow Jones flagship Wall Street Journal to trumpet:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall for First Time Since February
I prefer to look at the actual data, using the annual rate of change as the basis for comparison.
"Things Are Worse" – Dollar Stores' Startling Admission: Half Of US Consumers Are In Dire Straits (Zero Hedge)
If there was any confusion about how the lower half of the US consumer class is doing these days, it was quickly lifted following today's distressing earnings calls of dollar store titans, Dollar General and Dollar Tree.
New Data Offer First Infuriating Glimpse At How The Richest 0.001 Percent Pay Income Taxes (Think Progress)
Tax day doesn’t sting much if you live at the gilded edge, according to new data on how the top one-hundredth of one percent and the top one-thousandth of a percent of all filers pay their income taxes.
Fed’s Bullard Warns Yellen On Credibility, Sticks With Forecast “One Hike In Next 2.5 Years” (MishTalk)
Today has certainly been entertaining.
First, Janet Yellen came out with a chart showing there was a 70% chance that rates would be between 0% and 4.5% in 2018. Is the 90% confidence level -1.0 to 6?
China’s Top Search Engine Freezes Bitcoin Ads Without Warning (Bloomberg)
Baidu Inc. has quietly removed advertising for bitcoin and all other forms of virtual currency from its online service, two of China’s largest bitcoin exchanges say, signaling a growing wariness over the proliferation of online scammers.
Uber Just Scored a Major Win in New York Over Surge Pricing (Reuters)
A federal judge on Friday granted a request by Uber Technologies and its chief executive officer to put a passenger’s price-fixing lawsuit against them on hold, while they appeal his refusal to let them arbitrate the dispute.
Judge rules Caesars Entertainment must face lawsuits from bondholders seeking $11 billion in claims (Reuters)
Caesars Entertainment must face lawsuits from bondholders seeking some $11 billion in claims, a U.S. judge ruled on Friday in a decision the casino company had warned could plunge it into bankruptcy alongside its operating unit.
J-Holed: Stocks Slide After "Good" Yellen, "Bad" Powell, & "Ugly" Fischer (Zero Hedge)
Yellen was hawkish but offered some dovish hope, Fischer dashed that hope, and Powell piled on… (Once again it seems VIX 14 was the target)
The OPEC Oil Deal Is Coming… but Not When the Pundits Expect It (Money Morning)
On Aug. 24, I was on Chinese national television, being interviewed about the latest rumors of a possible new OPEC deal to cut or freeze oil production.
CARL ICAHN: Bill Ackman is a liar (Business Insider)
Carl Icahn is sticking with his Herbalife investment.
In a statement released on his website, Icahn said that he had not sold any of his shares in the nutrition company and in fact upped his position by 2.3 million shares on Friday.
Politics
FBI Files Say China Firm Pushed U.S. Experts for Nuclear Secrets (Bloomberg)
A state-owned Chinese power company under indictment in the U.S. pressed American nuclear consultants for years to hand over secret technologies and documents they weren’t supposed to disclose — and in some cases it got them, several of the consultants have told the FBI.
Donald Trump is driving professional women away from the Republican Party (The Economist)
HILLARY CLINTON’S campaign has a new TV ad suggesting that Donald Trump’s ego is too large and his head too hot to entrust him with nuclear codes.
If Trump’s New Immigration Plan Sounds Familiar, That’s Because Obama Is Already Enforcing It (Think Progress)
Donald Trump has built his presidential campaign around harsh rhetoric toward immigrants—referring to people who cross the border as “rapists,” pledging to build a wall between the United States and Mexico, and promising to round up millions of undocumented immigrants for deportation.
The Man Who Fabricates China's Econ Data Was Arrested For "Selling Power For Sex" And "Lacking Political Faith" (Zero Hedge)
While China's president Xi Jinping has been conducting a sweeping campaign ever since coming to power over three years ago, meant to root out deply ingrained corruption in China's communist party, one individual was assumed to be immune from prosecution …
Last week, Robby Mook, Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, said we should ask “real questions” about whether Donald Trump “is just a puppet for the Kremlin.”
Republican senator's outreach ad appears to use stock footage from Africa (Talking Points Memo)
A new ad highlighting Sen. Richard Burr's (R-NC) work in helping disadvantaged children in his state appears to feature black children from a school in Africa, not North Carolina.
Technology
NASA’s Next-Gen Ships Run on Last-Gen Chips (Bloomberg Businessweek)
Earlier this summer, NASA announced that ARM Holdings’ A53 will be the microprocessor core design at the heart of the agency’s next generation of spacecraft. By the time the microprocessors are delivered in 2020, however, they’ll be so outmoded you wouldn’t want them in your phone.
Is Watson Smart Enough To Breathe Life Into IBM? (Forbes)
While the concept may be all the rage right now, artificial intelligence is decades old. The technology was first discussed during a conference at Dartmouth College in 1956.
IBM’s New Artificial Neurons a Big Step Toward Powerful Brain-Like Computers (Singularity Hub)
Thanks to a sleek new computer chip developed by IBM, we are one step closer to making computers work like the brain.
The neuromorphic chip is made from a phase-change material commonly found in rewritable optical discs (confused? more on this later).
Solutions to the World’s Biggest Problems Are Within Our Reach (Singularity Hub)
At Singularity University (SU) we believe it is possible to solve today’s most pressing problems within the next couple decades. We call these the global grand challenges (GGCs).
Facebook fires humans from writing Trending Topics headlines (Mashable Asia)
Facebook is turning its news section almost entirely over to the machines.
Facebook has changed Trending Topics to rely on algorithms to surface and sort news, the company announced on Friday, just months after the section was the center of controversy over alleged editor bias.
Health and Life Sciences
US health officials: A Zika case was spread via sex by a man with no symptoms (Associated Press)
U.S. health officials on Friday reported the first case of Zika spread through sex by a man with no symptoms of the disease.
We’ve Been Wrong About the Origins of Life for 90 Years (Singularity Hub)
For nearly nine decades, science’s favorite explanation for the origin of life has been the “primordial soup.” This is the idea that life began from a series of chemical reactions in a warm pond on Earth’s surface, triggered by an external energy source such as lightning strike or ultraviolet (UV) light.
Paid Sick Leave Reduces the Flu Rate ‘Significantly,’ Paper Says (The Wall Street Journal)
Everyone knows staying home from work when you have the flu helps protect your co-workers from getting sick. Unfortunately, not everyone does it.
Life on the Home Planet
Obama Just Quadrupled The World’s Largest Natural Sanctuary (Think Progress)
President Barack Obama expanded the Papahnaumokukea Marine National Monument in Hawaii, the White House announced Friday.
Hurricanes and Typhoons (Bloomberg)
Focus the sun’s beams on the tropical ocean at peak intensity. Add in warm, moist air. Stir the pot with the motion of the spinning globe.
California’s Emissions Goal Is a ‘Milestone’ on Climate Efforts (NY Times)
California will extend its landmark climate change legislation to 2030, a move that climate specialists say solidifies the state’s role as a leader in the effort to curb heat-trapping emissions.
Bolivia Says Official Sent to Negotiate With Miners Is Killed (NY Times)
A conflict between the Bolivian government and miners demanding that the country’s mining laws be changed escalated on Friday as the authorities said that protesters had kidnapped, tortured and killed a top official sent to negotiate with them.
Corrections to the Global Temperature Record and the Early Onset of Industrial Age Warming (Stochastic Trend)
The changes to the temperature trend in the period of the "hiatus" are really small and hard to see in the context of the century scale temperature trend (Panel A)
