Financial Markets and Economy
IEA Raises Forecast for Non-OPEC Oil Output Growth Next Year (Bloomberg)
Supply growth from nations outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will be “just shy” of 500,000 barrels a day, an increase of 110,000 from the agency’s forecast last month, it said Thursday. Russian production is likely to grow by 190,000 barrels a day, building on a 230,000-barrel increase in 2016.
Futures, option trading volume hit record after Trump win: CME Group (Reuters)
Combined trading volume on financial and commodity futures and options set a one-day record on Wednesday as Donald Trump's stunning U.S. presidential win triggered massive market swings, exchange operator CME Group (CME.O) said on Thursday.
China is pushing for Asia-Pacific trade deals after Donald Trump's win dashes TPP hopes (Reuters)
BEIJING (Reuters) – China will seek support for a Beijing-led Asia-Pacific free trade area at a regional summit in Peru later this month, Chinese officials said on Thursday, after Donald Trump's U.S. election win dashed hopes for a U.S.-led free trade pact.
Trump's Tax Cuts May Be More Important for the Economy Than His Trade Policies (Bloomberg)
While economists at the British bank say in their revised outlook that the President-Elect's trade policies could shave 0.5 percentage points off U.S. annualized GDP growth in the months ahead, they're still increasing their forecasts for 2017 on the expectation that the Republican nominee's promised tax cuts will offset the decline.
Oil producers face another year of 'relentless' pumping (CNN Money)
The amount of oil hitting world markets will continue to grow relentlessly if OPEC fails to agree production cuts, the International Energy Agency has warned.
And making the proposed cuts a reality will be very difficult.
Your money's no good: rupee note cancellation plunges India into panic (The Guardian)
Queues of angry, panicked Indians wound around bank buildings in Mumbai, the financial capital, on Thursday morning, two days after the prime minister, Narendra Modi, announced that 500- and 1,000-rupee notes, worth around £6 and £12, would be taken out of circulation.
Trump or Not, the Rich World Is Already in a Quiet Trade War (Bloomberg)
Free trade is already in retreat, even before Donald Trump moves into the White House.
According to data released on Thursday by the World Trade Organization in Geneva, a total of 85 new trade-restrictive measures were introduced by G-20 members in the five months to mid October 2016.
Consumer Comfort in U.S. Rises for Third Straight Week (Bloomberg)
Consumer confidence increased for a third straight week as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy than at any time since the start of the year, figures from the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed Thursday.
Soda tax 'more powerful than anything I've ever seen' (CBC News)
As voters consider soda taxes in four U.S. cities, a new study finds that low-income Berkeley neighbourhoods slashed sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by more than one-fifth after the Northern California city enacted the first soda tax in the U.S.
The price of everything in America may be about to go up (Business Insider)
Wall Street analysts are trying to figure out just what the economy will look like under a President Donald Trump.
And though many questions are still unanswered, they are nearly unanimous on one thing: Trump's policies will most likely bring about a significant uptick in inflation.
Bond-Market Inflation Outlook Picks Up After Trump Victory (Bloomberg)
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is helping to drive the outlook for faster inflation in Europe, according to bond-market gauges.
Trump Was Stronger Where The Economy Is Weaker (FiveThirtyEight)
Donald Trump performed best on Tuesday in places where the economy is in worse shape, and especially in places where jobs are most at risk in the future.
Trump, who in his campaign pledged to be a voice for “forgotten Americans,” beat Hillary Clinton in counties with slower job growth and lower wages.
In 2015, U.S. coal production, consumption, and employment fell by more than 10% (US Energy Information Administration
U.S. coal production dropped by more than 10% in 2015 to 897 million short tons (MMst), the lowest production level since 1986. Production in all three major coal-producing regions (the Appalachian, the Interior, and the Western) declined, as consumption of coal for electric power generation, industrial, and other uses fell by 13% to 798 MMst in 2015.
The legacy of the 2011 debt ceiling fight is the biggest issue Trump will face on day one (Business Insider)
Five years ago, President Barack Obama signed into law what Todd Harrison, the director of defense budget analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says will be the biggest challenge for the incoming administration: the Budget Control Act of 2011.
The Five Biggest Business Issues Facing the New Ninth Justice (Bloomberg)
In the first half of 2017 a new justice nominated by President Trump is likely to join the Supreme Court, which has been split 4-4 since the unexpected death of Justice Antonin Scalia last February. Scalia was known as a social conservative, but he also led 5-4 pro-corporate majorities in a series of major rulings.
Donald Trump’s Transition Team: We Will ‘Dismantle’ Dodd-Frank (The Wall Street Journal)
WASHINGTON—President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team promised to dismantle the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, declaring that the coming administration will seek to remake the way the U.S. oversees the financial sector.
Bankers Start to Question Iceland’s Ballooning Currency Reserves (Bloomberg)
As Iceland sets itself up for a final exit from capital controls, the nation’s bankers are starting to question the costs involved.
Bezos Goes the Way of Pesos (Market Chess)
The theme of this week across many markets has been rotation. And while the temptation may be to assign a political reason for all of the moves, in reality the price action in the bond market (which was already on this trajectory long before Trump's victory) may carry more significance than politics.
US Treasury 10 Year Auction Delivers Lowest Bid-To-Cover Since March '09 (Confounded Interest)
The 10 year US Treasury auction yesterday produced a new low. The bid-to-cover ratio for the 10 year Treasury fell to 2.220. It is the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since March 2009.
Donald Trump’s Win Gives GOP Fuel to Slash Taxes (The Wall Street Journal)
Donald Trump’s victory will embolden Republicans to complete one of the party’s core missions: slashing tax rates on individuals and businesses.
Despite the rifts between Mr. Trump and establishment Republicans on trade and immigration, they largely agree on tax policy. And they are prepared to use full control of the House, Senate and White House to enact sweeping tax cuts early in 2017.
Your Taxes Are About to Change—Perhaps Not the Way You Think (The Wall Street Journal)
Major tax changes for individuals are likely next year, following this week’s Republican sweep of the White House and Congress.
Does the Gig Economy Cannibalize or Create Jobs? (Ritholtz)
Last month, I spoke with Arun Sundararajan of NYU about the gig economy. Hew is the author of The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism.
Companies
Macy’s Makes Real-Estate Pact With Brookfield; Profit Falls (The Wall Street Journal)
Macy’s Inc. posted another quarter of lower sales at existing stores and struck a deal that could further shrink its retail footprint.
But executives also hinted at improving retail trends, sending shares of the company higher.
Macy’s, Inc. Reports Third Quarter Earnings, Reaffirms Full-Year EPS Guidance; Raises Full–Year Sales Guidance (Business Wire)
Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M) today reported diluted earnings per share of 5 cents in the third quarter of 2016 ended October 29, 2016. Excluding non-cash retirement plan settlement charges of $62 million, or 12 cents per diluted share (as described below), third quarter earnings per share were 17 cents.
Alibaba Racks Up $7.2 Billion in Two Hours on Singles’ Day (Bloomberg)
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Singles’ Day shopathon is off to a strong start, notching $7.2 billion of sales within the first two hours of a 24-hour event that may offer clues on the health of the Chinese economy and its largest online retailer.
ConocoPhillips wants to sell $8 billion worth of natural gas assets (Reuters)
(Reuters) – ConocoPhillips, the largest U.S. independent oil producer, will sell up to $8 billion in natural gas assets and trim its capital budget by 4 percent next year to provide funds to bolster operations, it said on Thursday.
Wells Fargo Leads Banks Up as Trump Win Seen Curbing Warren (Bloomberg)
Wells Fargo & Co. climbed for a second straight day, leading U.S. bank stocks higher, as investors bet that a Trump presidency will lead to less regulation, sideline some of the industry’s sharpest critics and lift long-term interest rates.
MetLife board approves $3 billion buyback program, its biggest ever (Reuters)
MetLife Inc (MET.N) said on Thursday its board had approved a new $3 billion share buyback program, its largest ever.
If the company bought shares at Wednesday's closing price of $51.28, it would be able to repurchase about 58 million shares, according to Reuters calculation.
Technology
Russia Prepares to Block LinkedIn After Court Ruling (NY Times)
LinkedIn, the social networking site for professionals that will soon be bought by Microsoft, is to be blocked in Russia after a local court ruled on Thursday that it had breached the country’s data protection rules, a sign of growing tensions for American tech companies operating in the country.
93% of Investors Say AI Will Destroy Jobs, Governments Not Prepared (Forbes)
224 global investors with more than $100 billion of investable capital say that governments are not prepared for the coming of artificial intelligence and the massive job loss that, they say, will result.
It is ALREADY too late to ban killer robots: Researchers say autonomous weapons 'have and will become possible' (Mail Online)
Researchers have warned it is already too late to stop killer robots – and say banning them would be little more than a temporary solution.
University at Buffalo researchers claim 'society is entering into a situation where systems like these have and will become possible.'
Politics
What went wrong? Eleven takes from media veterans (Politico)
POLITICO Media reached out to a number of editors, executives and journalists, to gauge their reaction to what happened on Nov. 8, and what lessons the media can learn from the electoral surprise of the century.
Trump’s Data Team Saw a Different America—and They Were Right (Bloomberg)
Nobody saw it coming. Not the media. Certainly not Hillary Clinton. Not even Donald Trump’s team of data scientists, holed up in their San Antonio headquarters 1,800 miles from Trump Tower, were predicting this outcome.
Judge tells Trump University litigants they would be wise to settle (Reuters)
The U.S. judge overseeing the lawsuit against President-elect Donald Trump and his Trump University told both sides they would be wise to settle the case "given all else that's involved."
Lawyers for the president-elect are squaring off against students who claim they were they were lured by false promises to pay up to $35,000 to learn Trump's real estate investing "secrets" from his "hand-picked" instructors.
Merkel allies warn of Trump effect, poll shows Germans dismayed (Reuters)
Leading allies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Thursday that populists would pose a problem for Europe unless mainstream politicians came up with answers after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election.
Trump Casts Pall Over Climate Cause, But He Can't Turn Back The Clock On Coal (Forbes)
Donald Trump’s election victory has cast a pall over efforts to fight climate change while it is casting a lifeline to the coal industry, which is responsible for a third of all manmade carbon emissions. If he follows through with his campaign promises, he will nix the Obama administration’s plan to tackle to those emissions while also pulling out of the Paris global climate accord.
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Economists said a Trump presidency would be a disaster. So why isn't Wall Street worried? (Vox)
Before the election, a lot of people — including me — assumed that a Donald Trump win would send stocks plunging. A group of 20 Nobel Prize–winning economists warned last week that a Trump presidency could “jeopardize the foundations of American prosperity and the global economy.”
RIP Obamacare: Republicans want to kill the Affordable Care Act as soon as the new Congress starts (Salon)
With President-elect Donald Trump soon to enter the White House and Republicans firmly in control of Congress, Obamacare’s days are numbered.
“It’s pretty high on our agenda as you know,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Politico Wednesday.
More States Legalize Marijuana, But Will President Trump Allow It? (Forbes)
Ballot measures to legalize recreational marijuana succeeded Tuesday in California, Massachusetts, Nevada and Maine. Medical marijuana has been legalized in North Dakota, Arkansas, Florida and Montana (again). Only Arizona voters said no to their marijuana legislation. Now, the question is, will President Trump allow it?
Trump could use legal short-cuts to pull out of a global climate change agreement within a year (Reuters)
MARRAKESH, Morocco (Reuters) – U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could use legal short-cuts to pull out of a global agreement for fighting climate change within a year, keeping a campaign promise and by-passing a theoretical four-year wait, lawyers say.
Trump’s potential Homeland Security chief says anti-Trump protests ‘must be quelled’ (Think Progress)
The First Amendment protects the right of to join together in peaceful protest. And on Wednesday night, many Americans throughout the country did just that in response to the election of Donald Trump.
Journalists fear for their profession under Trump – and some, for their safety (Politico)
As she left 1211 Avenue of the Americas building on Tuesday night, Wall Street Journal graphics editor Stephanie Stamm walked by the group of spectators gathered outside of Fox News’ studios.
Donald Trump Says He’d ‘Absolutely’ Require Muslims to Register (NY Times)
NEWTON, Iowa — Donald J. Trump, who earlier in the week said he was open to requiring Muslims in the United States to register in a database, said on Thursday night that he “would certainly implement that — absolutely.”
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is dead, Schumer tells labor leaders (The Washington Post)
The Senate’s soon-to-be top Democrat told labor leaders Thursday that the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the trade deal at the center of President Obama’s “pivot” to strengthen ties with key Asian allies, will not be ratified by Congress.
ACLU fires salvo against President-elect Donald Trump: “We’ll see him in court” (Salon)
The ACLU urged Trump to change his unconstitutional proposals in a statement Wednesday, threatening that, if Trump does not reassess his policies, that the ACLU will go after Trump with their “full firepower.” The ACLU warned the president-elect on his favorite communicational medium: Twitter
Donald Trump Win Has Blacks, Hispanics and Muslims Bracing for a Long 4 Years (NY Times)
Throughout the long and contentious presidential campaign, they saw themselves on the front lines of the country’s power struggle — insulted and antagonized by Donald J. Trump and courted in near-desperation by Hillary Clinton.
Trump University Trial Judge Refuses to Bar All Campaign Remarks (Bloomberg)
Donald Trump’s request to prevent former Trump University students from introducing any of his campaign statements at their fraud trial this month was tentatively denied, but the judge said he’ll consider excluding specific statements once the case gets underway.
Donald Trump Could Put Climate Change on Course for ‘Danger Zone’ (NY Times)
WASHINGTON — For a look at how sharply policy in Washington will change under the administration of Donald J. Trump, look no further than the environment.
Mr. Trump has called human-caused climate change a “hoax.” He has vowed to dismantle the Environmental Protection Agency “in almost every form.”
Some of Donald Trump's most controversial proposals were temporarily removed from his website (Reuters)
UPDATE: Trump's proposal to bar Muslims from entering the US has been restored to his website.
"The website was temporarily redirecting all specific press release pages to the homepage," his campaign said in a statement.
In the aftermath of Trump’s victory, immigrants brace for the worst (Think Progress)
WASHINGTON, D.C. — More than two dozen immigrants and advocates wearing orange shirts emblazoned with “undocumented and here to stay” huddled at the headquarters of the immigrant advocacy group United We Dream late Tuesday night, ready to celebrate what appeared to be the likely election of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
Fed’s Bullard Says December ‘A Reasonable Time’ to Raise Rates (Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard says he’s not changed his outlook for the economy since victory of Donald Trump in U.S. presidential election.
Health and Biotech
A biotech startup that aims to rid our bodies of cells related to aging just got a big investment (Business Insider)
A biotech startup that wants to clear cells related to aging from our bodies just got $116 million to test out how its technology might work in people.
Unity Biotechnology, which came out of stealth mode in February, has been studying a particular type of cells and their relationship to aging.
Leaked Emails: Aspartema Linked To Diabetes, Alzheimer's and Obesity (InfoWars)
Diet soda is supposed to offer you the sweetness of regular soda without any additional calories. However, new information has confirmed that diet soda is actually linked to a myriad of health problems including diabetes and Alzheimer’s.
Life on the Home Planet
World Poverty (Our World In Data)
This entry is concerned with extreme poverty. The World Bank is the main source for global information on extreme poverty today and sets the International Poverty Line. This poverty line was revised in 2015 – since then a person is considered to live in extreme poverty if he or she is living on less than 1.90 international-$ per day.
Students yelling 'cotton picker,' heiling Hitler at this local school (Lehigh Valley Live)
Southern Lehigh High School students have been subjected to classmates yelling gay slurs and the n-word in the halls, calling black students cotton pickers and using heil Hitler salutes.
Hijab-wearing woman describes San Jose State attack (The Mercury News)
Esra Altun, a 19-year-old sophomore at San Jose State University, is interviewed outside of the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Library at San Jose State University in San Jose, Calif., on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2016. Someone grabbed her hijab from behind and yanked her backwards in a university parking garage.
