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Monday, November 25, 2024

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Why Investors Shouldn't Get Overly Excited About a Trump Fiscal Boom (Bloomberg)

The president-elect has fueled a spirited rally in the dollar and developed-market stocks since his election victory, while government bond yields have staged a large selloff amid expectations that the Republican's policy platform — tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending — will turbo-charge U.S. growth and inflation.

The worst-case scenario for the economy under Trump just happened in another country (The Washington Post)

It is hard to compare Donald Trump to anyone else in American politics, especially when it comes to the economy. The president-elect plans to combine restrictions on goods imported from abroad, which are usually advocated by liberal politicians, with conventionally Republican policies, such as tax relief for the wealthy and major corporations, along with more federal borrowing.

The Donald Trump Trade Effect: Watch the Peso, Not Ford (The Wall Street Journal)

Though not yet president, Donald Trump has already notched his first victory in his campaign to stop foreigners from stealing American jobs.

Venezuela's state-owned oil company just missed a bond payment (Reuters, Business Insider)

Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA has activated a 30-day grace period for $404 million in interest payments on its 2021, 2024 and 2035 bonds, JPMorgan analysts said in a report on Monday.

Deutsche Bank: Trump Could Push the U.S. Economy and Stock Markets to New Records (Bloomberg)

It's looking more likely that President-elect Donald Trump will preside over a continuing U.S. expansion that could take its place as the longest among American business cycles, according to Deutsche Bank AG. And Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Bianco predicts that by the time the real estate mogul takes office in January, the S&P 500 Index will eclipse 2,250.

Silver ETF Investors Bail as Prices Near Bear Market: Chart (Bloomberg)

Investors in silver, the best-performing precious metal through the first three quarters of this year, are heading for the exit. Through Thursday, almost $79 million was pulled from iShares Silver Trust in November, set for the biggest monthly outflow since January.

Goldman Sachs Says Donald Trump Will Be Terrible for Stocks in 2017 (Fortune)

Even while some Wall Streeters are saying Donald Trump’s presidency could result in stronger domestic growth and a boost to the stock market, a team of Goldman Sachs  GS 0.35%  analysts led by top strategist Charles Himmelberg are saying, “Not going to happen.”

Japanese Exports Fall for the 13th Straight Month (Reuters)

Japan’s exports fell in October for a 13th consecutive month and by more than expected as the strength of the yen and sluggish foreign demand weighed on trade, although current yen weakness could change the outlook.

Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should bet on higher commodities prices in the next year as manufacturing picks up around the world, the first time the bank has recommended an overweight position for the asset class in more than four years.

Trump wants to hand corporate America a sweet tax deal — but it doesn't look like CEOs will share the wealth (Business Insider)

Donald Trump wants to reform America's corporate tax system and give companies a sweeter deal that encourage them to bring profits home, instead of stashing them overseas.

OPEC Quota Talks End First Day as Optimism on Deal Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil traders and analysts grew more confident that OPEC will reach a deal to curb global oversupply next week as delegates said talks on assigning quotas to individual countries made good progress.

Why Deutsche Bank Thinks The S&P Is Going To 2,500 Next (Zero Hedge)

For the past year, Deutsche Bank was one of the most stubbornly pessimistic banks. Then, overnight, everything changed for one reason: Donald Trump.

GOLDMAN: American companies could spend a record amount buying their own shares in 2017 (Business Insider)

The bank's chief US equity strategist, David Kostin, and his team estimate that S&P 500 buyback spending will total $780 billion next year. That would be more than their estimate for $602 billion in 2016, which is on track to be a record.

Brace For A Year Of "Peak Everything, Big Rotations" – Here Is BofA's Guide How To Trade It (Zero Hedge)

Over the past year, Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has often repeated that when looking at the "transforming word", one core theme that emerges is the rotation away from monetary to fiscal policy, and from "Wall Street"-focused strategies to "Main Street." Now, under the Trump presidency, his vision may be validated.

Traders Are Now 100% Sure The Fed Hikes Rates In December (Zero Hedge)

You better not let us down again Janet…

Rate Hikes are now 100% priced in.

Cheer Up, America: 1,700 Millionaires Are Minted Every Day (Bloomberg)

The U.S. is home to a working class suffering from stagnant incomes and declining job prospects—widespread struggles that helped elect Republican Donald Trump. The relative wealth of Americans in all age groups keeps falling, compared with previous decades.

EU Retaliates Against US Banks, London: Global Trade War Tit-For-Tat (MishTalk)

The EU fired a major global trade war tit-for-tat retaliation today against US banks and the UK in a single action.

Brussels will raise costs for foreign lenders while simultaneously taking a pot shot at London.

John Mauldin: This Post-Election Stock Market Rally Won't Last (MauldinEconomics.com, Zero Hedge)

I’d like to share an update that throws some chilly water on the post-election stock market rally.

My friends Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management usually write only quarterly letters. 

Companies

BuzzFeed, NBCUniversal to Intertwine Ad Sales and Production (The Wall Street Journal)

BuzzFeed and Comcast Corp.’s NBCUniversal revealed new plans to intertwine their ad sales and production, as part of NBCU’s additional $200 million strategic investment in the millennial-focus digital media darling.

This Pipeline Company Is Counting Down Until Inauguration Day (Fool.com)

Despite following every letter of the law along the way, Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) has encountered an unexpected obstacle in the quest to build the Dakota Access Pipeline: a reluctant federal government.

GILD Stock: The Rally In Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) Stock Is Just Getting Started (Amigo Bulls)

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NSDQ:GILD) stock is up over 4% last week since its Q3 earnings on November 1st. The company was definitely helped by Donald Trump winning the presidential election as the biotech sector as a whole took off once Hillary Clinton was defeated.

Here Are The Retail Chains That Will Close Their Stores On Thanksgiving (Forbes)

The shopping furor that in past years has spread to Thanksgiving Day seems to be yielding to a more concentrated Black Friday blast this year. Below is a long list of distinguished retailers that will not open their stores on Thursday.

Technology

How One Clothing Company Blends AI and Human Expertise (Harvard Business Review)

When we think about artificial intelligence, we often imagine robots performing tasks on the warehouse or factory floor that were once exclusively the work of people. This conjures up the specter of lost jobs and upheaval for many workers. Yet, it can also seem a bit remote — something that will happen in “the future.” But the future is a lot closer than many realize. It also looks more promising than many have predicted.

Google can now tell you how busy a place is before you arrive (Tech Crunch)

With Popular Times, Google introduced a nifty little feature for its search engine last year that lets you know how busy a restaurant, coffee shop or bar typically is at any given time of the week. Today, it’s taking this concept a step further by making this tool real-time. So now, you will know exactly how long the line is going to be before you even head out to your favorite brunch place on Sunday morning.

Apple's reportedly had it with making wireless routers (CNet)

According to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg, Apple has been working over the last year to shut down the internet networking division that manufactures the AirPort Express, the AirPort Extreme and the AirPort Time Capsule devices that help Apple users get online.

Light-based neural network could lead to super-fast AI (Engadget)

It's one thing to create computers that behave like brains, but it's something else to make them perform as well as brains. Conventional circuitry can only operate so quickly as part of a neural network, even if it's sometimes much more powerful than standard computers.

What an iPhone could cost in Trump’s America (The Washington Post)x

Businesses and policymakers are bracing for what could happen under President-elect Donald Trump's trade agenda. Trump has promised to slap a tax on Chinese goods, possibly as high as 45 percent; he also has said that he will reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing by bringing it home.

Chernobyl Is Going to Become a Solar Farm (Popular Mechanics)

Two Chinese solar companies have announced a plan to build a large solar farm in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. The solar farm is expected to output over 1 gigawatt of power.

Politics

Canada Phases Out Coal As Donald Trump Aims To Revive It In U.S. (The Huffington Post)

By speeding up the timeline for closing coal-fired plants, which spew more pollution than most other fossil fuels, the country expects to reduce its carbon emissions by 5 megatons, or the equivalent taking of 1.3 million cars off the road. Coal makes up nearly three-quarters of the Canadian electrical industry’s greenhouse gas emissions, and over 8 percent of the country’s total carbon footprint.

Trump’s plan to bring back overseas profits is a bonanza for wealthy shareholders (Think Progress)

American companies have an estimated $2.6 trillion in profits sitting untaxed overseas. As part of his tax proposal package, President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to entice them to bring that money back and invest it in production and jobs here at home.

Media outrage over press pool access plays right into Trump’s hands (Columbia Journalism Review)

Saul Alinsky, the legendary community organizer, has long figured in the radical right’s conspiracy theories about contemporary liberal politics.

Source Who May or May Not Be Donald Trump Says He Humiliated the Nation's Top Reporters Today (The Slot)

On Monday, Donald Trump summoned the most visible members of the press corps—television news reporters and the executives of their networks—to his gilded apartment building, where he sat them in a boardroom and acted out his best version of The Apprentice in an off-the-record meeting from which the New York Post has nonetheless collected multiple anecdotes.

Fixation on Fake News Overshadows Waning Trust in Real Reporting (NY Times)

Something is deeply wrong when the pope’s voice, reputation and influence can be borrowed by a source that describes itself as “a fantasy news site” to claim that he has endorsed a presidential candidate, and then be amplified, unchallenged, through a million individual shares.

The Electoral College Was Meant to Stop Men Like Trump From Being President (The Atlantic)

Americans talk about democracy like it’s sacred. In public discourse, the more democratic American government is, the better. The people are supposed to rule.

Record-High 77% of Americans Perceive Nation as Divided (Gallup)

Seventy-seven percent of Americans, a new high, believe the nation is divided on the most important values, while 21% believe it is united and in agreement.

BREAKING: Republican maps struck down as unconstitutional partisan gerrymander (Think Progress)

In a potentially transformative decision that could hobble partisan gerrymandering and restore a degree of fairness to many legislative races, a divided federal court held on Monday that Wisconsin’s state assembly maps are unconstitutional.

Paul Krugman: Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan is one big scam (Alternet, Salon)

Progressives might think they can find some common ground with a Trump administration over a infrastructure rebuilding plan, but don’t be fooled, Paul Krugman writes in Monday’s column.

Hitler salutes and white supremacism: a weekend with the 'alt-right' (The Guardian)

Some of the most prominent members of the so-called “alt-right”, the white nationalist movement that helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency, gathered in Washington DC on Saturday to plot how the movement can “start influencing policy and culture” under the Trump administration.

Sean Hannity is really offended that Megyn Kelly said Fox News hosts were pretending to be adversarial to Donald Trump (Salon)

Fox News host Megyn Kelly is on a book tour for her future No. 1 seller, “Settle for More.” The book has attracted much press attention, with Kelly revealing President-elect Donald Trump offered her free hotel rooms, and speculation that she may have been poisoned before moderating a primary debate.

The Top 5 Gimmicks GOP Will Use To Enact The Trump Agenda (Forbes)

Much of what President-elect Donald Trump promised to do during the election campaign on spending and taxes can’t be enacted without Congress violating one or more provisions of the congressional budget process.

Trump Says He Will Issue Executive Order On First Day In Office Withdrawing U.S. From TPP (Zero Hedge)

In a video message released moments ago by Donald Trump, the President-Elect announced that he has asked his team to develop a list of executive actions for his first day as president and announced that he would issue an executive order on his first day of office, withdrawing the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership, and would issue a notification of intent to withdraw from the TPP, voiding Obama's "free-trade legacy."

Health and Biotech

Zika is here to stay (MIT Technology Review)

The World Health Organization is no longer classifying Zika virus as an international public health emergency.

Why UnitedHealth Is the Only Healthcare Insurer To Own (Fool.com)

Open enrollment forObamacare recentlykicked off, and the cost of the premiums will feel like a punch in the gut tomany Americans. On average, plans on the Affordable Care Act exchanges will cost a stunning 25% more than last year, and in some cases they will double.

Life on the Home Planet

Evolutionary psychology shows that people get ahead in life by using one of these two strategies (Quartz)

Donald Trump got to the White House by angrily and aggressively attacking everyone who dared challenge him. He resorted to childish name-calling (“Little Marco,” “Crooked Hillary”), insulting women’s appearances, and mocking the disabled. Social and evolutionary psychology can help us understand why voters rewarded him for it.

Earthquake Off Fukushima, Japan, Triggers Tsunami (The Wall Street Journal)

TOKYO — A powerful earthquake triggered a tsunami off the coast of Japan early Tuesday, near where three nuclear reactors melted down at a plant in Fukushima after a quake and tsunami in 2011.

Being a mean girl does pay off: Researchers find 'nicer' females are paid LESS that more assertive women (but still earn less than men) (MailOnline)

The nicer and more agreeable a woman is at work, the lower her salary is likely to be, researchers have claimed.

Pope Francis cements priests' power to forgive abortion (The Guardian)

Pope Francis has given all priests the power to forgive women who have had an abortion, saying the procedure was a “grave sin” but one that God’s mercy could wipe away for those with a repentant heart.

Divorce in U.S. Plunges to 35-Year Low (Bloomberg)

The U.S. divorce rate has fallen for the third consecutive year, to its lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data released Thursday.

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