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Friday, November 1, 2024

Exit Stage 3 Delayed; Another Technocrat; Bank Bailout Coming; What About Beppe Grillo?

Courtesy of Mish.

Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, asked Renzi to stay on as prime minister. Renzi agreed to do so until a budget is in place, likely later this week.

The vast majority of the population wants an immediate election, but Mattarella wants another technocrat.  Voter be damned, Italy’s 4th consecutive technocrat prime minister is coming up. I am available, and waiting a call.

The first mission of the new technocrat will be to pass legislation that will make it much harder for Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S) to get into power. Voters be damned again.

Exit Stage 3 Delayed

Please consider Renzi agrees to delay resignation until after budget vote.

At a meeting in the presidential palace in Rome, Mr Renzi expressed his intention to resign after suffering a bruising defeat in a constitutional reform referendum held on Sunday. But Sergio Mattarella, the Italian head of state, asked him to freeze the resignation until the budget is approved, according to a statement from Mr Mattarella’s office.

One Italian official said the budget could be approved within a week, after which Mr Mattarella would begin the formal talks on picking a new prime minister. The 2017 budget law has been passed in the lower chamber but not yet in the senate.

The two populist leaders with eyes on Mr Renzi’s job — Beppe Grillo, head of the Five Star Movement, and Matteo Salvini, leader of rightwing Lega Nord — have called for immediate elections, though Mr Mattarella is unlikely to go that route.

Instead of calling elections, Mr Mattarella is expected to choose a technocrat to take over as prime minister. Among the likely candidates are two senior figures in the country’s establishment: Pier Carlo Padoan, finance minister, and Pietro Grasso, president of the Italian senate.

Mr Renzi’s comprehensive defeat could also have consequences within his Democratic party that may complicate the transition process. There is increasing speculation that he may be forced to quit as leader of the centre-left party. Mauro Baragiola, a political analyst at Citi, said the party was at risk of splitting into pro- and anti-Renzi camps following the referendum.

Mission Number One

As a Defeated Renzi Falls on His Sword, the primary mission of the new technocrat is to screw Beppe Grillo. The financial times offers this color commentary blast of Grillo:

Mr Renzi’s successor will steer through parliament substantial revisions to a badly misguided electoral law that came into force in July. The changes will almost certainly remove clauses that award bonus seats to the party that wins parliamentary elections.

In this way they will block the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which is within shouting distance of the Democratic party in opinion polls, from seizing control of the legislature. For anyone disturbed by the movement’s half-baked notions of withdrawing Italy from the eurozone, and bemused by the utter mess that it is making of governing Rome after its municipal election victory in June, it will be a relief that Mr Renzi’s defeat offers a way to keep the keys of national power safely from the Five Star Movement’s grasp.

Don’t Worry, Be Happy

With worries over Beppe Grillo about to be shoved to the back burner, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the eurogroup, says he is confident Rome can deal with the poll result’s financial fallout.


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