Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.
No Toilet Bowl Thursday, tis the time for football and following up on our Week 15 and Week 17 Playoff Projections… all match up stats in Yards Per Attempt, provided by Pro Football Reference. All times Eastern.
DAL Pokes, ATL Dirty Birds, NE Minutemen and KC Chefs all get the week off and await on their home field for…
Saturday 4:30PM ABC/ESPN
#5 OAK Raiders (Road 6-2) @ #4 HOU Texans (Home 7-1)
Weather: Dome Perfect
Spread HOU -3.5 OU 36.5
HOU Offense Run #19 4.1 Pass #30 5.2 Sacked 32 TODiff -7
OAK Defense Run #25 4.5 Pass #32 7.3 Sacks 25
OAK Offense Run #10 4.4; Pass #13 6.6 Sacked 18 TODiff +16
HOU Defense Run #13 4.0; Pass #4 5.8 Sacks 31
A game of contrasts, Texan defense is stiff, Raiders is porous. Texan offense is anemic, Raiders have firepower. A good road team vs a good home team. The Texans are 9-7 with a -41 pt differential, a horrible turnover ratio and vanishing ground game, last 3 out 79, 95 and 46 yds.
Week 11 vs Texans, the Raiders prevailed at home 27-20 with QB Carr, his loss will hamper da Raiders. In a fall from grace, the Silver and Black went from fighting for the #1 seed to the #5 seed in week 17. Ex-Badger and X-Factor QB Connor Cook will start for OAK and could surprise.
Setting our line: OAK -6 minus 3pts on road nets OAK -3. Both QB’s will struggle and he who makes the fewest mistakes? A +23 differential for OAK in that respect, sloppy teams lose and we see da Raiders headed to Beantown. Our pick OAK as an under priced road dog ATS +3.5 and SU.
Saturday 8:15PM NBC
#6 DET Lions (Road 3-5) @ #3 SEA Seahawks (Home 7-1)
Weather: 35F brisk cloudy 4mph wind
Spread SEA -8 OU 43
SEA Offense Run #24 3.9 Pass #9 6.8 Sacked 42 TODiff: +1
DET Defense Run #20 4.4 Pass #27 6.9 Sacks 26
DET Offense Run #27 3.7; Pass #15 6.5 Sacked 37 TODiff: -1
SEA Defense Run #1 3.4; Pass #15 6.2 Sacks 42
After starting 1-3, then streaking 8-1 over a collection of trash teams, the Motor City Kitties finished 0-3 to NYG, DAL and GB while backing into the #6 seed. Poor Pirates in Pewter Pants aka TB Bucs, eliminated on a “strength of schedule” tie breaker.
We liken Lions coach Caldwell to the CIN Ben-Gals Clueless Lewis, viz., they make the playoffs every other year on a weak last place schedule. Both DET and CIN suffer as the following year, having to play a tougher schedule means a losing season. Tis a vicious cycle, for the fans that is.
The Squawks finished 3-3 and don’t have the Beast ground game or All Pro FS Earl Thomas. Alas, the Pussycats are not good on the road outdoors. Since Week 11, Kitties avg rushing 75 yds and they will have to air it out vs Squawks D.
Setting our line: SEA -3.5 plus 3pts for home nets SEA -6.5. As the Squawks fly to the Falcons, our pick SEA -8 ATS and SU. Would not be surprised if DET beats the number with a cheap garbage TD.
Sunday 1:05PM CBS
#6 MIA Dolphins (Road 4-4) @ #3 PIT Steelers (Home 6-2)
Weather: 19F Cold 12mph wind
Spread PIT -10 OU 46
PIT Offense Run #15 4.3 Pass #8 6.8 Sacked 21 TODiff +5
MIA Defense Run #31 4.8 Pass #13 6.2 Sacks 33
MIA Offense Run #8 4.5; Pass #6 6.9 Sacked 30 TODiff +2
PIT Defense Run #19 4.3; Pass #11 6.2 Sacks 38
The Fish started 1-4, since 9-2 with a week 6 home victory over the Steelers 30-15 in which MIA rushed for 222 vs 128 yds. The last 11 games, the Dolphin defense gave up an average 136 rush yds.
Over that same period the Steelers have averaged 160 yds per game on the ground. In Week 16 the sliced sushi defense allowed the Bison 272 rushing yds.
After a 4-1 start, the Steelers went into a 4 game funk vs MIA, NE, BAL, DAL. Since then on a 7 game tear, not counting the vacation on week 17, the ground defense: 33, 91, 56, 67, 76 and 122.
Fish starting QB Tannehill went down, backup Moore is respectable. Setting our line: PIT -7 plus 3pts for home nets PIT -10. The Riveters make filet-o-fish and stay on a title game tear to Beantown with our pick PIT -10 ATS and SU.
Sunday 4:40PM FOX
#5 NY Giants (Road 4-4) @ #4 GB Packers (Home 6-2)
Weather: 8F chilly cloudy 7mph wind
Spread GB -4.5 OU 44.5
GB Offense Run #7 4.5 Pass #17 6.4 Sacked 35 TODiff +8
NY Defense Run #2 3.6 Pass #7 6.0 Sacks 35
NY Offense Run #30 3.5; Pass #19 6.3 Sacked 22 TODiff -2
GB Defense Run #14 4.0; Pass #30 7.1 Sacks 40
To sneak in the backdoor at #6, the WAS Deadskins could not manage a home win versus a NYG Military Insects (GI-Ants) team, that did not need the game and should have been sleepwalking.
Meanwhile, as we predicted privately six weeks ago, the GB Sausage Packers won out as the DET Pontiac Pussycats collapsed in typical fashion, more to come. After starting 3-1, the Pack lost 5 of 6, then won out 6-0 to take the North Division and #3 seed.
On the tundra of Lambeau the Pack face the Gmen, whom they vanquished 23-16 in Week 4. Said loss was the 3rd straight for a 2-3 GI-Ant team who have since gone 9-2. Excepting the Pokes, said win streak was against some dubious competition.
Both teams have porous pass defenses, opponents were too busy throwing to bother running, therefore the run defense numbers are deceptively low. Both teams can air it out, the only offensive difference is the Giant’s anemic ground game, which they probably won’t need.
Setting our line: GB -0.5 plus 3pts for home nets GB -3.5 The Gmen have improved enough to make the Week 4 result a little closer than 7.
Mr. Rodgers and the Packers are hot and should continue their roll into a divisional date with Jerry’s Kid’s in big D. A split decision with our pick NYG +4.5 ATS and GB SU.
Dark Horse?
As they are both hotter than a squirrel putting suntan oil on his nuts, keep your eyes on these dark horse…
In the NFC, watch the GB Sausage Packers, the potential of facing Mr. Rodgers and his O-line has the DAL Pokes (aka Jerry’s Kids) defensive coordinator sweatin like a priest at a preschool.
In the AFC, watch the Three Rivers PIT Riveters, the potential of facing that O-line and Mr. Bell has the NE Minutemen defensive coordinator sweatin like a hooker in church.
BTW In Week 1, I privately speculated on the playoff 12 pack: NFC – SEA, CAR, GB, DAL, ARZ, NYG; AFC – NE, KC, PIT, HOU, DEN, OAK
Not bad, swapping ATL, DET and MIA for a disappointing CAR, ARZ; and DEN. At the end of day here is the final result with our Wild Card Weekend projections, always subject to change.
NFC
1 DAL 13-3
2 ATL 11-5
3 SEA 10-5-1
4 GB 10-6
5 NYG 11-5
6 DET 9-7
DET @ SEA*
NYG @ GB*
GB @ DAL*
SEA @ ATL*
ATL @ DAL*
AFC
1 NE 14-2
2 KC 12-4
3 PIT 11-5
4 HOU 9-7
5 OAK 12-4
6 MIA 10-6
MIA @ PIT*
OAK* @ HOU
OAK @ NE*
PIT* @ KC
PIT @ NE*
Super Bowl 51 @ Houston
NE vs DAL* in OT
