Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.
Since the Super Bowl is next Sunday Feb 5th, 2017, we are taking a party or potty break from Thursdays in the Toilet or Loo Time…
Value of A Number One Seed?
Since 1975, the two #1 seeds have advanced to the SB… 12 times out of 42.
Prior to the last 3 years, only twice in the last 24 years, had the two #1 seeds met in the SB: 2009 NO – IND; 1994 DAL – BUF.
Last three years running, all #1 seeds 2014 SEA – DEN; 2015 NE – SEA; 2016 DEN – CAR.
Not gonna happen this year.
Studying TOM – Turn Over Margin
Negative TOM -1 means you turned the ball over, one more time than your opponent did. Positive TOM +1 means your opponent turned the ball over to you, one more time than you did.
In a International Journal of Sports Science and Engineering 2012 study, data were collected from the National Football League website for all regular season games in the 2001 to 2007 seasons.
Pre-season and post-season games were not included, due to the different circumstances under which those games are played. Only games where a victory was able to be recorded were used; tied games were ignored. In total, 1,783 games were observed and recorded.
Table 2 from that study below: Estimated Probabilities of Winning, based upon TOM (Turn Over Margin) and Home or Visitor.
Studying TOM with the Spread
In a 2013 Boyds Bets study TOM was compared SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread for the period 1993-2013. The results below…
How important is TOM or Turn Over Margin? Our own Nattering study to come…
