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Friday, November 15, 2024

Top Trades for Wed, 08 Feb 2017 15:07 – TWTR Earnings Play

Hedge/Batman - Since all hedges have been crushed - you would have gone broker faster not doing spreads.  SDS is more liquid and it's a 2x so the June $12 ($2.50)/16 (0.50) bull call spread pays 100% at $16 and it's $2.37 in the money so you can't lose unless the S&P goes up, which would be good for your longs.  So, if a 10% drop in the S&P would cost you $100,000, you can hedge it with $50,000 worth of SDS and you only lose that $50,000 if SDS falls about 20%, which would be a 10% pop on the S&P, which would make you $100,000.  Somewhere between $25,000 and, at most $40,000 is the right way to go though - you don't have to cover ever penny of your loss - just offset some of it.  

TWTR/Lunar - Well I'm bullish but earnings is a huge risk.  Our Jan $13 calls are still just $6.70 and you can sell the $18 calls for $3.70 for net $3 on the $5 spread and if TWTR takes off, you collect a 60% profit in a year and, if they sell off, THEN you can sell puts to cover the $3 (2019 $13 puts are $1.75 so maybe $3.50 on a good drop).  

 

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