A 28% reduction!
That's how much the Atlanta Fed chopped off their GDP forecast for Q1 after getting a look at yesterday's Personal Consumption and Expenditures data. The forecast is now for an anemic 1.8% growth and the market is up 13% since last Q so traders are currently paying 700% for growth at these prices – really smart…
The market gapped up the next morning when the Fed put out a 3.4% estimate on Jan 31st (reports are end of day) so will they gap down now that we have reversed the move off the 2.25% base-line estimate? Not only are the economic outlooks collapsing but more and more Fed Governors are telegraphing a March 15th rate hike with Lael Brainard, one of the top Fed doves, saying last night that the Fed should raise rates "soon."
The Fed HAS to raise rates or we risk a worst-case economic situation – a stagnant economy plus inflation or STAGFLATION – a trap the Fed really needs to keep us out of. Inflation already looks poised to get out of control thanks in large part to our friends at OPEC (and in the White House) artificially pushing up the price of oil, which is a stealth tax on consumers, draining their discretionary spending accounts.
I don't have a more recent graph but, as you can see, the resurgence of the US Consumer in the past couple of years has been a direct result of oil prices going from $100 to $40 and now we're back at $53 (up 33%) already, erasing 20% of the drop in prices. Will we also erase 20% of the 120% gain in Personal Consumption – early indications noted by the Atlanta Fed say yes – that's why they chopped 28% off their GDP forecast.
Speaking of oil – we're keeping ahead of inflation with very nice $1,000 per contract gains from yesterday's Live Trading Webinar on our Oil Futures (/CL) position – now at goal at $53 so don't be greedy and at least 1/2 off the table with right stops ($53.25) on the remainder. Any time you make $1,000 per contract in less than 24 hours, you need to learn to be happy to cash in!
Don't forget, the reason we are so good at calling oil moves is because IT'S A TOTAL SCAM!!! That's right, it's a rigged system and we understand the rigging – that's all there is to it and this Government will NEVER do anything about it, so it's going to be a fantastic 4 years trading oil for us at PSW!
Speaking of scams, the White House will be holding a meeting today with 15 Federal Agencies to discuss Infrastructure Spending but the whole thing is a scam as the program includes the Keystone Pipeline as "infrastructure" and Team Trump is looking to offer hundreds of Billions in tax credits to their business buddies for projects they were going to do anyway and this does NOTHING to fix the things that really need fixing (roads, bridges, dams, electrical grid, water systems).
Even worse, the plan is to SELL profitable roads and bridges (along with huge tax incentives) to private ventures who will then recoup their investments through massive toll increases – yet another stealth tax on our citizens and more disposable income goes down the tubes.
The Congressional Budget Office reports that only 14 highway projects have been completed using public-private partnerships with private financing.
“The vast majority of the critical infrastructure projects needed to move the country forward are a combination of repairs and incremental expansions,” Kevin DeGood, director of infrastructure policy for the Center for American Progress, wrote in a blog post last month.
“Unfortunately, the Trump infrastructure plan does nothing for these repair and incremental expansion projects. By focusing federal tax subsidies on revenue-generating megaprojects in large urban areas, the plan leaves the rest of America’s infrastructure needs behind.”
This infrastructure plan likely won’t work. If it does work, it will be giving public highways to Billionaire investors for pennies on the Dollar. You already paid taxes for the roads and this giveaway of your Tax Dollars to the super-rich will gain you no public roads or bridges, because the “investors” will hold the equity. All the tax money you and your ancestors paid to build and support these roads and bridges will be handed over to the Top 1%, who will then be free to charge you forever for the use of "their" roads.
You are being robbed – plain and simple. Your roads and your bridges are being confiscated by the Government and handed out to their friends who will then charge you to use the roads and bridges for the rest of your life and, when the road or bridge needs major repairs and becomes unprofitable to repair – guess what happens next!
Rick Perry recently tried this "public/private" transit project in Texas – after 15 years it is an obvious and total disaster. This is the danger of putting carpet-baggers in charge of the Government, there are no backsies when you sell off the People's assets and hand them over to Capitalists – it's a mistake you and your children will pay for for decades to come!
